久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

Global EditionASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Policies

IMF raises China's growth forecast to 5.2%

By ZHAO HUANXIN in Washington | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2023-01-31 10:19
Share
Share - WeChat

The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 5.2 percent in 2023, up 0.8 percentage point from its projection in October, as it said the country's recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.

In an upside scenario, growth is expected to pick up in China with its full reopening in 2023, which came after the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in November and December, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook Update released on Tuesday.

Pent-up demand also could fuel a stronger rebound in China, according to the report, titled "Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth".

"The restrictions and COVID-19 outbreaks in China dampened activity last year. With the economy now re-opened, we see growth rebounding to 5.2 percent this year as activity and mobility recover," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, wrote in a blog Tuesday.

"All the indications are that we are witnessing a rapid reopening of the economy," he said at a press conference on the launch of the IMF report in Singapore Tuesday morning. The reopening will have an impact on the supply side, meaning there will be less supply chain disruptions as witnessed in 2022.

"Also we're going to get an increase in domestic demand as Chinese households are going to be able to resume activities and start spending. We're going to see that in a number of dimensions, including, for instance, tourism, that's going to be an engine that will benefit other countries as well," he said.

Gourinchas said that based on estimates computed in the Fund, for every percentage point higher growth in China, there is a spillover effect to the rest of the world that is about 0.3 percentage points, which he said is "quite significant".

The spillover effect is stronger for countries that are closer trade partners of China, he added.

The forecast is almost 1 percentage point higher than projected by IMF's sister agency, the World Bank, which predicted on Jan 10 that China's economy will grow by 4.3 percent this year, then rise by 5 percent in 2024.

The IMF, however, forecasts China's growth to fall to 4.5 percent in 2024.

On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, so accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations in China would safeguard the recovery, with positive cross-border spillovers, the IMF noted.

In addition, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the property sector could also stall China's recovery, Gourinchas noted.

The IMF said that globally, the rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and the conflict in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity, with global inflation expected to fall from 8.8 percent in 2022, to 6.6 percent in 2023, and 4.3 percent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 percent.

It noted that world economic growth will slow from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rebound to 3.1 percent in 2024.

The anticipated growth for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook.

That growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the world economy grew by 3.8 percent on average between 2000 and 2019, the IMF said.

For advanced economies, the slowdown will be more pronounced, with 9 out of 10 advanced economies likely decelerating, according to Gourinchas.

For example, US growth will slow to 1.4 percent in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes work their way through the economy, and the growth is expected to bottom out at 0.7 percent this year in the eurozone, where conditions are more challenging despite signs of resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter and generous fiscal support.

Gourinchas noted that India and China will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a 10th for the US and eurozone combined.

In the report, the IMF warned of the risk of growing forces of geopolitical fragmentation, as the conflict in Ukraine and the related international sanctions are splitting the world economy into blocs and reinforcing earlier geopolitical tensions, such as those associated with the US-China trade dispute.

"We must buttress multilateral cooperation, especially on fundamental areas of common interest such as international trade, expanding the global financial safety net, public health preparedness and the climate transition," Gourinchas wrote.

This time around, the global economic outlook hasn't worsened. The road back to a full recovery with sustainable growth, stable prices and progress for all is only starting, he concluded in the blog.

1 2 Next   >>|
Top
BACK TO THE TOP
English
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
CLOSE
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 免费在线看a | 午夜不卡视频 | 99精品在线观看视频 | 国产成人精品久久 | 欧美在线成人免费国产 | 毛片在线播放网站 | 国产精品成人自拍 | 国产三级香港三韩国三级 | 欧美特级大片 | 91亚洲精品成人一区 | 97视频在线观看免费 | 99视频精品全部 在线 | 久久久久久久国产 | 性色午夜视频免费男人的天堂 | 国产精品久久免费视频 | 欧美黑人性xxx猛交 欧美很黄视频在线观看 | 国产成年人 | 91九色视频无限观看免费 | 欧美精品色精品一区二区三区 | 日韩欧美一区二区三区免费观看 | 亚洲精品线在线观看 | 91理论片 | 国产a级特黄的片子视频免费 | 国产一级做a爰片在线看免费 | 欧美综合自拍亚洲综合 | 69成人做爰视频在线观看 | 美女毛片免费 | 美女个护士一级毛片亚洲 | 亚洲高清一区二区三区四区 | 99免费视频观看 | 性久久久久久久久久 | 亚洲自拍在线观看 | 亚洲精品一二三 | 一级特一级特色生活片 | 久久小视频| 欧美日韩在线观看精品 | 国产乱码一区二区三区四 | 最新毛片久热97免费精品视频 | 女人张开双腿让男人桶爽免 | 久草免费在线播放视频 | 女人被男人躁得好爽免费视频免费 |