A senior commerce official in the US state of Washington has said that while trade imbalances are a legitimate concern, tariffs have historically harmed rather than helped the state.

"Tariffs often function as a tax on American consumers and businesses," Joe Nguyen, the state's commerce director, said in an interview with Seattle radio station KUOW. "We've found that nearly 93 percent of tariffs are passed on to consumers, driving up costs."

Nguyen expressed particular concern for agricultural communities, which depend on global exports of apples, cherries and hops, and emphasized the need for predictable trade policies to foster economic stability.

"Washington state can't fully insulate itself from reckless federal policies," he said. "Trade decisions made on a whim have global consequences. Our focus must be on protecting local businesses, workers and consumers as much as possible."

Washington, one of the most trade-dependent states in the US, relies heavily on international commerce, with 40 percent of its jobs tied to trade and about $60 billion in annual exports.

China is the state's third-largest export market, according to a fact sheet released by US Senator Maria Cantwell. In 2023, the value of produce grown or processed in Washington exported to China was $857 million.

"When retaliatory tariffs strike our farmers, just as they did in the first Trump administration, it's not going to be fun. It's going to be a nightmare for our farmers," Cantwell said in a Senate meeting on March 4.

Oregon Treasurer Elizabeth Steiner said the tariffs could increase inflation, trigger job losses and slow long-term economic growth.

"Government should be predictable and steady," she said. "Businesses and families rely on rational policymaking."

Economists estimate the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China — three of Oregon's top four export markets — could cost households an additional $1,200 a year.

"For too many Oregonians, budgets are already stretched thin. An unasked-for $1,200 expense is unsustainable, especially for families struggling to save," Steiner said.

Last year, Oregon exported $34 billion in goods, with nearly half going to Mexico ($6.3 billion), China ($5.9 billion) and Canada ($3.3 billion). Steiner argued that any disruption to those markets would have far-reaching consequences for the state's economy.

Permanent damage

An industry expert also expressed concern, saying that the US had lost long-term market share in China's fresh produce sector due to the trade war, and that regaining it will require more than just lifting tariffs. Structural changes in global supply chains and China's strategic diversification could mean the damage is permanent.

"I think what China saw in 2017,'18 is the US wasn't a reliable trading partner, and that they needed to diversify their suppliers," Alexis Taylor, chief global policy officer at the International Fresh Produce Association, said at a food policy meeting in Washington, DC, on March 17.

Taylor said that more of Brazil's production is coming online, such as corn, soy, and beef, while China is opening new market access to Brazil because it's a new supply chain.

"When I look at the numbers from the fresh fruit and vegetable exports, we (the US) haven't recovered from that trade war with China," she said. "On average, from 2005 to 2017, we were exporting about $500 million or $450 million worth of products."

The figure dropped on average to $200.36 million from 2020 to 2024, Taylor said.

"When you lose some of these markets it's very hard to get them back," she said.

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