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The central bank has warned that fluctuations in the real estate market may threaten banking security.

In its "Financial Stability Report 2006," which was published on Thursday, the People's Bank of China said the overall performance of 16 major commercial banks had improved by the end of 2005.

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But given the rising house prices and the expanding scale of mortgages, "the potential risks brought by fluctuations in the real estate market should be monitored."

The report pointed out that the bad loan ratio of the 16 banks for individual consumer lending, 90 percent of which is individual housing loans, was 2.55 percent by the end of last year, 0.75 percentage points higher than a year before.

The report warned that price drops would have an impact on the macro-economy and the effect will spill over to affect financial stability. Moreover, it said, the depreciation of house values, as a result of price falls, will lead to devalued banking assets.

The ratio of individual housing loans to the overall volume of credit in financial institutions rose from 6 percent in 2000 to 21 percent in 2003. By the end of 2005, the ratio for long-term loans was 33.9 percent.

Analysts said the central bank is answering the central leadership's call for more effective macro-economic regulation.

"It sends a clear message that the central bank wants the commercial banks to do something," said Chen Gong, chief analyst and chairman of Beijing -based Anbound Consulting.

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