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China growth to continue, Olympics not seen as turning point

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Updated: 2007-06-05 16:09

Preparations for the 2008 Olympic Games have had little impact on China's economy, which is expected to continue growing rapidly after the event is over, JPMorgan said.

In a note, JPMorgan said preparations for the Games have hardly even impacted Beijing's economy, and it added that fears of a post-Olympic slump are misplaced.

"The data so far indicate no obvious effect of the upcoming 2008 Beijing Olympics on the economy of China as a whole - indeed, they do not even show a big impact on the economy of Beijing. Hosting the Olympics is more a consequence of the rising economic power of China, than a contributor to faster economic growth," JP Morgan said.

"The idea that the Olympics might be a turning point for China thus seems to us exaggerated. With the Chinese economy continuing to show strong, healthy, and increasingly balanced growth, a post-Olympic slowdown seems unlikely indeed," it added.

JPMorgan said the impact of the Olympics depends a great deal on the size of the host country's economy and its stage of development.

For larger, rapidly growing countries, the Olympics are a relatively small event, the brokerage said.

Also, Beijing plays a relatively insignificant part within China's economy, contributing only 3.7 percent to gross domestic product in 2006, it added.

Fixed-asset investment (FAI) in Beijing in 2006 grew 18.9 percent, way below the 48.3 percent recorded in the northeastern province of Jilin and 37.3 percent in Central China's Henan, JPMorgan noted.

"The fact that Beijing actually lagged behind these less-developed provinces in both GDP and FAI growth suggests that the Olympics are not a major contributor to China growth and investment," it said.

The note added that Beijing's low ranking in terms of FAI and growth -- it ranked 21st among China's 31 provinces in terms of GDP growth last year -- suggests that the capital's main objective in hosting the Olympics is not growth per se, but presenting itself as a clean city.

Beijing has used 12.2 billion US dollars of its Olympics budget to improve the city's environment for the 1998-2008 period, JPMorgan said.

Many factories have been relocated out of the city, while large construction projects are also reportedly set to be closed down ahead of the Games. Special regulations will also be imposed on traffic and domestic tourism.

But this will likely have a rebound effect in 2009 when normal economic activities resume after the games, the note said.

In contrast, activity declined in countries like Spain and Australia after they hosted the Games, it added.

"In sum, beyond the 2008 Olympics, we expect the Chinese economy to continue growing at a fast pace," JPMorgan said.


(For more biz stories, please visit Industry Updates)


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