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Economists: Chinese economy to recover in Q2

By Wang Bo (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-02-14 16:35

As the large scale de-stocking process tapers off and the stimulus policies take effect, the Chinese economy could touch the trough in the first quarter and bottom out in the second quarter of this year, economists said.

Related readings:  'China economy in good shape'  China to see early recovery ahead of global economy  Economy set to power up in 3rd quarter

"The latest economic indicators showed that the worst time might have passed, and the economy is expected to recover in a 'V'-shape in the second quarter," Gao Shanwen, chief economist with Essence Securities said in the 2009 China macro-economy forecast spring annual conference held by the Capital Week magazine on Saturday.

But he warned that the property sector might be an uncertainty in the medium term. As the government unveiled a raft of measures to prop up the real estate market, the property trade in some cities has rebounded, he said.

However, it is still not clear whether it can keep the momentum. If so, it can be a key support for the growth of domestic demands, Gao added.

Li Gang, economist with China Agricultural Bank，shared Gao's view, saying the Chinese real economy could have touched the trough in late last year or the first quarter of 2009.

"There is a risk of mild deflation in the first half of 2009, and corporate earnings will touch the bottom during the same period," Li said.