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Asia's recovery road long and bumpy: ADB chief economist

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-07-02 16:15

Despite signs of the bottoming-out shown in the first half of this year, Asia's recovery from the global economic downturn will be mild and slow, a top economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.

In a group interview with reporters based here, ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee said Asia is now in a transition period from the bottom of the crisis to the road of recovery.

But he warned that there are a lot of downsized risks along the road. "It is going to be long and bumpy," Lee said.

The ADB in March forecasted the economic growth for developing Asia to plunge to 3.4 percent in 2009 and climb up to 6 percent next year.

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Lee said countries like China, India and Indonesia continued to show strong growth momentum while manufacturing sectors in some other export-dependent countries improved over the past quarter.

But he said the unexpected scale of economic deterioration in industrialized countries especially the Europe prolongs the recovery of Asian economies.

Lee said now the consensus is that the European economy will contract 4 to 5 percent this year, worse than ADB's projection of 3 percent made in March. The prospect of the US economy largely stays the same while Japan sends mixed signal on its current economic situation.

The chief economist said export remains an important drive of Asia's growth and without the global recovery it will be very difficult for Asia to go back to its sustained growth path.

Lee said while Asia's current mild growth feeds on regional demand, the industrialized world, especially the US, remains a key market for Asia's exports.

Aside from the risk posed by a prolonged and deeper recession in the industrialized countries, Lee said the rise in commodity prices and protectionism measures adopted by the developed countries will also affect Asia's recovery.