www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

BIZCHINA> Insights
Watching for signs of a tighter new fiscal policy
By Ou Lu (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-11-02 08:44

With China's strong third-quarter economic showing reflecting a rapid recovery in China's economy, investors are listening closely to policy makers' comments for clues about whether the country is beginning to unwind its ultra-loose pro-growth policies.

The State Council, China's cabinet, gave its first clear signal on Oct 22 that it was considering a tighter monetary policy. The State Council said that policy should focus on both managing inflationary expectations, as well as securing steady economic growth, and that the recovery had been "consolidated".

The carefully chosen wording marks a slight shift from the cabinet's repeated insistence in recent months that the world's third-largest economy had to consolidate an economic recovery that was not yet solid, haunted by weak external demand.

 Watching for signs of a tighter new fiscal policy

Beijing's bustling Central Business District reflects China's rapid economic growth. However, some experts question whether this growth is sustainable. [Agencies]

The consensus among China's economy watchers is that China's economy is going to paint a rosy picture in the fourth quarter. Most economists expect even stronger growth in 2010, given this year's relatively low base of comparison.

According to the Lang Run Forecast released by Peking University's China Center for Economic Research (CCER), a major government think tank, China's economy is expected to grow by 10.6 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of this year, while its consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.5 percent.

The Lang Run Forecast was based on the weighted average of projections from 21 institutions, including CCER, Morgan Stanley, the State Information Center, China International Capital Corp, Citigroup, CITIC Securities, HSBC and UBS Securities.

Of the 21 institutions surveyed, 19 predict an economic growth rate higher than 10 percent for the fourth quarter. Among those, Morgan Stanley has the most optimistic prediction of 11.6 percent.

Risks of inflation

However, behind the strong economic figures, some people have sensed rising risks of inflation caused by the country's bank lending spree and the liquidity in the Chinese market.

China has overseen a massive increase in lending this year. New loans in the first nine months totaled 8.67 trillion yuan, far exceeding the government's initial minimum target of 5 trillion yuan ($732 billion) for 2009. The M2, or the broadest measure of money supply, is up 29.3 percent year-on-year.

A debate about the timing for China to switch to any monetary tightening is already in full swing among local researchers, economists and bankers.

Qin Xiao, chairman of the country's sixth-largest lender, China Merchants Bank, recently wrote in an article in the Financial Times that said China should adopt an "urgent" tightening of monetary policy to prevent the huge stimulus measures this year from inflating stock and property bubbles.

Qin added that the government should not be afraid of a "moderate slowdown" in the economy.

"Monetary policy must not neglect asset price movements," he wrote. "Therefore it is urgent that China shift from a loose monetary policy stance to a neutral one."

Fears of an asset bubble

Tomo Kinoshita, an economist at Nomura International, said in a recent report that China risked creating an asset bubble similar to that of Japan in the 1980s if it continued with aggressive lending at the same time it was deregulating its financial markets.

However, Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said he believes the inflation rate in 2010 will be a moderate 2.5 percent and will not be a big concern.

"But I understand that the policy makers had profound reasons to put inflation back on the government's agenda, as inflation still poses a potential risk," he said.

Related readings:
Watching for signs of a tighter new fiscal policy PBOC likely to adopt a tighter monetary policy: report
Watching for signs of a tighter new fiscal policy China locked into financial policy
Watching for signs of a tighter new fiscal policy China's fiscal revenue up 33% in September
Watching for signs of a tighter new fiscal policy China's bank credit to rise in Q4: PBOC

Wang said that the change in wording by the State Council does not necessarily suggest an immediate policy change.

"It is highly likely a foreshadowing of what is to come in the next year," said Wang, who ruled out possibilities of any increases in interest rates or changes in exchange rates in the first half of 2010. However, he added, there is a slight possibility for a reserve requirement ratio adjustment.

Policy makers in the United States and Europe have given no sign they are ready to raise rates. The US Federal Reserve said in September that it aims to keep the benchmark rate near zero "for an extended period".

Alex Weber, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, said on Oct 22 that there is "surely no need to rush for the exit" of monetary stimulus.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point early in October. The move made Australia the first developed economy to raise rates since the global financial crisis began.

Despite concerns about whether China is going to sustain its unprecedented surge of bank lending, China's consolidated recovery also brought new concerns about whether the country will start to withdraw from further stimulus measures.


(For more biz stories, please visit Industries)

   Previous page 1 2 Next Page  

主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲国产激情一区二区三区 | 朝鲜美女免费一级毛片 | 欧美视频久久久 | 在线观看国产精品日本不卡网 | 国产亚洲精 | 加勒比在线视频 | 免费人成在线观看 | 99久久99久久精品免费看子伦 | 免费看一级欧美毛片视频 | 日韩在线黄色 | 久久综合精品国产一区二区三区无 | 免费一区二区三区在线视频 | 99国产精品一区二区 | 九久久| 美女被躁爽死 | 久久国产免费观看 | 欧美日韩一区二区三区高清不卡 | 1级a的观看视频 | 一区二区三区在线免费观看视频 | 男人在线网址 | 亚洲精品国产成人7777 | 99久久国产综合精品2020 | 美国免费三片在线观看 | 国产日本在线视频 | 日本一级毛片高清免费观看视频 | 一区二区三区高清视频在线观看 | 亚洲精品在线播放视频 | 男性吸女下身的视频 | 日本大臿亚洲香蕉大片 | 亚洲成a | 亚洲欧洲日产国码一级毛片 | 俄罗斯美女在线观看一区 | 国产在线视频欧美亚综合 | 国产1区在线观看 | 国产一区亚洲 | 精品无人区一区二区三区a 精品午夜国产在线观看不卡 | 久久草在线视频免费 | 扒开两腿猛进入爽爽视频 | 久久视频精品36线视频在线观看 | 日韩在线免费视频 | 久久福利资源网站免费看 |