www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

Need for managing inflation

Updated: 2012-02-22 11:06

By Syetarn Hansakul (China Daily)

  Comments() Print Mail Large Medium  Small 分享按鈕 0

Need for managing inflation

Over the weekend, China's central bank announced it would lower the reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point to 20.5 percent for larger financial institutions in an effort at "fine tuning" as Premier Wen Jiabao said a week ago.

It's a move intended to maintain economic growth by pumping up substantial amount of liquidity into the financial system while keeping inflation in check.

Managing inflation expectations in China is not an easy task. In a country with a population of more than 1.3 billion people, the key economic objective is to deliver economic growth and jobs. In recent years, the emphasis has been shifted to not only the level of growth alone, but also the quality of growth and sustainability. Keeping price pressures within reasonable limits and managing inflation expectations remain significant.

A look at the past few decades shows that the country has fared well in regards to inflation management. The double-digit inflation days of the 1980s and mid-1990s appear to be over. In the past decade, inflation was contained at below 6 percent on an annual average basis, despite consistently strong economic growth. Nonetheless, the road ahead will not be easy.

It's not always convenient to blame domestic inflation on food prices. With several ongoing structural changes, price pressures look set to intensify. The structural changes include the rise of large emerging market economies, which include China that would imply a persistent surge in demand for the world's scarce commodities such as oil, minerals, and food.

The pressure for higher wages is here to stay. One only needs to look at recent labor discontent in the southern provinces to see the picture. Plans to provide for better welfare for workers along with their pension plans are positive steps that will raise the cost of hiring workers.

Additionally, the green tax, which is necessary for long-term sustainable growth, will raise production costs and the prices of products. Higher commodity prices and wages seem inevitable as the nation matures into a new stage of development. Although it is mainly food price inflation that has driven the Consumer Price Index (CPI) higher in recent years, there is no mistaking the trend that core CPI has been raising steadily. The consistent increase in core CPI reflects the impact of structural changes on the national economy.

Chinese authorities have been using several monetary policy levers, besides adjusting interest rates; the People's Bank of China (PBOC) establishes targets for money and loan growth. The task is complicated by the existence of a sizeable informal lending sector. The current reminbi regime adds complexity to monetary management. Years of strong accumulation of foreign reserves have increased the money supply, inflationary pressures, and subsequent sterilizing operations that bear fiscal costs.

China must contend with the management of domestic liquidity and inflation expectations. In the current cycle, authorities have signalled they are expecting a downturn in economic growth. The inflation-fighting objective of 2011 is giving way to concerns over downside risks. The reserve requirement ratio for banks has already been cut, which means the tightening monetary cycle has passed.

It would be wise for the country to tread carefully with monetary easing in this current cycle. The population faces many unfulfilled basic demands such as housing. Demand-pushed inflationary pressures are much stronger than in mature economies. To inject liquidity into the system beyond a certain point could create future asset bubbles and raise risks of boom-bust economic cycles. Addressing supply and supply-side constraints would be another way to manage inflationary pressures. It is encouraging to see the promotion of more efficient farming methods as well as efforts to increase housing supply for lower-income groups.

Overall, it is unlikely the PBOC will engage in aggressive monetary easing this year. Monetary policy for most of 2012 could best be characterized as "neutral with an easing bias". The recent rebound in the Purchasing Manager Index is encouraging but there is no guarantee that global headwinds as seen in the fourth quarter of 2011 will not recur. Flexibility not only in monetary policy but also in the use of other policy tools will be the way to go. We had already seen a selective easing on curbs in the property sector in some cities.

In the medium- to longer-term future structural changes can improve the efficiency of monetary policy and manage inflation expectations. Other than relieving the bottleneck on the supply side, a gradual transition to a more market-based interest rate and credit allocation system as well as efforts to bring the informal banking sector under the purview of regulators should be the main tasks at hand.

The author is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank.

主站蜘蛛池模板: 97视频免费播放观看在线视频 | 欧美一级成人毛片影院 | 国产美女啪 | 高清欧美不卡一区二区三区 | 能在线观看的一区二区三区 | 日本三级成人中文字幕乱码 | 欧美在线综合 | 国产精品久久久久久一区二区三区 | 中国日本高清免费视频网 | 一区二区三区免费在线视频 | 国产免费一级在线观看 | 成人a毛片高清视频 | 国产午夜精品不卡视频 | 亚洲视频综合网 | 国产男人的天堂 | 亚洲人的天堂男人爽爽爽 | 久久精品国产免费一区 | www.一区二区三区.com | 影音先锋色先锋女同另类 | 综合久久精品 | 久久99精品久久久久久综合 | 成年网在线观看免费观看网址 | 91精品久久久久 | 欧美成人精品欧美一级乱黄 | 国产成人18黄网站免费 | 日韩成人在线观看视频 | 国产三级麻豆 | 欧美亚洲日本一区二区三区浪人 | 久久国产美女免费观看精品 | 日韩欧美在线观看一区 | 成人国产精品一级毛片天堂 | 日韩欧美在线播放视频 | 国产精品18久久久久网站 | 中国一级毛片在线观看 | 国产成人精品久久一区二区三区 | 国内精品久久久久久久aa护士 | 一级国产交换配乱淫 | 最新日韩欧美不卡一二三区 | 日本人的色道免费网站 | 日本精品一区二区三区视频 | 特黄aa级毛片免费视频播放 |