www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / Economy

Growing pains will pay off, say top economists

(Bloomberg) Updated: 2016-01-27 08:01

A year ago, Premier Li Keqiang told the World Economic Forum that his country could avoid a hard landing. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Credit Suisse Group AG Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam, who attended this year's forum held last week in the Swiss town of Davos, said he is still right.

Their stance clashes with the recent sentiment in financial markets, where a sell-off of the yuan and Chinese equities sent shockwaves through commodities markets and helped wipe $5 trillion off stocks worldwide by reviving fears over the global growth outlook.

"Sentiment has likely lurched far too quickly into a bearish posture and over-hyped downside scenarios," said Tim Adams, the United States Treasury's former point-man on China and now president of the Institute of International Finance. "In the end, China will likely emulate every major economy and muddle through."

Investors are increasingly concerned about China as a report released last week showed its economy grew last year at the weakest pace since 1990. Further spooking investors is a debt overhang estimated at $28 trillion, currency weakness that risks spurring competitive devaluations elsewhere, and equities' decline into a bear market.

With China now the world's No 2 economy and responsible for about 15 percent of global output, the worry is that its troubles will spread to other nations as it cuts imports of commodities and manufactured goods. A weaker yuan also threatens to deal another disinflationary blow.

Some economists counter that there is reason for optimism as Chinese consumers are still spending, property prices are stabilizing, demand for exports has picked up and there is plenty of room for fiscal and monetary stimulus if required. Though growth is indeed fading, China is on track to expand 6.5 percent this year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

"There's always been a gap between what's happening in the real economy and financial markets," said Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University who attended the Davos forum. "What's happening in China is a slowdown by all accounts," he said, "but it's not a cataclysmic slowdown."

To Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the situation is akin to the US savings and loans crisis in the 1980s, which hurt but did not cripple the economy. Chinese citizens still have savings, the country has little debt denominated in foreign currency, and banks are displaying no signs of instability, he said.

"I think people are over-reacting," said Posen, a former Bank of England policymaker. Even under more adverse conditions in China, the spillover will be limited to about 0.2 percentage point of GDP in the US, Europe and Japan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc economists said in a report this month.

Some argue that the pain will ultimately pay off as China shifts to a more sustainable expansion focused on consumption and services rather than investment and manufacturing.

"Yes there will be growing pains, yes they're changing their model from export-led capital intensive growth to consumerism, but I think they'll manage," Credit Suisse's Thiam said. "I went to China first in 1984-anybody who's been to China in 1984 can only be a China bull."

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日本在线视频免费看 | 人与禽的免费一级毛片 | 成人男女视频 | 国产精品麻豆一区二区三区v视界 | 亚洲成人免费在线视频 | 一 级做人爱全视频在线看 一本不卡 | 亚洲九九 | 亚洲另类在线视频 | 国内精品免费一区二区观看 | 国产一级毛片一区二区三区 | 亚洲国产精品免费在线观看 | 久久伊人操 | 真人一级毛片国产 | 久久黄色网址 | 日韩成人在线观看 | 日韩免费高清一级毛片在线 | 亚洲成a人不卡在线观看 | 国产精品视频久久久久久 | 亚洲欧美日韩中文字幕在线一区 | 国产黄色自拍视频 | 久久国产午夜精品理论片34页 | 久久精品免费一区二区三区 | 男女视频在线免费观看 | 国产精品亚洲片在线va | 成人免费公开视频 | 国产精品视频久久久久久 | 精品玖玖玖视频在线观看 | 日本免费人做人一区在线观看 | 美女个护士一级毛片亚洲 | 欧美一级特黄特色大片 | 日韩手机看片福利精品 | 久久久精品成人免费看 | 亚洲国产视频网 | 中国女人18xnxx视频 | 国产一级毛片大陆 | 中国一级毛片免费观看 | 日本欧美做爰全免费的视频 | 特级毛片8级毛片免费观看 特级毛片免费观看视频 | 欧美一级毛片黄 | 欧美日韩一区二区三区在线视频 | 国产精品欧美视频另类专区 |