久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / China Development Forum

Growth model back on track

By Zheng Yangpeng (China Daily) Updated: 2015-03-22 09:53

Growth model back on track

China's service industry will help create more jobs in the next few years. [Photo provided to China Daily]

After an economic slowdown in 2014, there are encouraging signs that the long awaited rebalancing of the Chinese economy is underway.

Data points to an accelerated shift away from an investment-led, credit-driven economy towards a consumption-driven, service-fueled economy.

Consumption contributed 51.2 percent of GDP growth in 2014, up from 48.2 percent a year earlier, and slightly higher than the 48.6 percent contribution from capital formation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Consumption contributed more to GDP growth than investment for the third year.

Value added generated from the tertiary, or service, industry took up 48.2 percent of GDP, up from 46.9 percent a year ago. The secondary industry's portion fell from 43.9 to 42.6 percent.

Steady growth in China's service industry helped counter weakening manufacturing activity in 2014, constituting what President Xi Jinping called the "new normal". The country's average official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 50.7 last year, while the average service PMI reached 54.4.

"We expect adjustment in the property sector and overcapacity in several industries will continue to weigh on manufacturing in 2015. But the service sector will likely continue its stable expansion. Thus, we expect continued, steady economic restructuring," said Zhu Haibin, China chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Economists believe an advancing service sector is the key reason why China's newly created jobs will still surpass 13 million even though GDP growth recorded the slowest expansion since 1990.

An expert with the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said 1 percentage point of GDP growth used to create less than 1 million new jobs, now it creates 1.7 million.

That is a big reason for celebrating as economists, domestic and abroad, have for years criticized China's highly skewed growth model. Runaway loan growth, a property bubble, redundant industrial capacity, excessively high government consumption, low private consumption and environmental degradation are all byproducts of the model.

"A major reason for the enormous downward pressure China faces is the relatively slow shift away from its traditional investment-driven growth model," said Kuang Xianming, an economist with the China Institute for Reform and Development. He said once the economy becomes consumption-driven, with more household consumption exceeding 40 percent of GDP, there was no doubt that China could achieve 10 years of 7 percent growth.

China's slow rebalancing is also good news for the world, even though it will affect commodity-exporting economies in the short term, economists said.

Slower growth in investment means a diminished appetite for minerals and energy imports. For the past decade China's surging demand for metals has pushed metal prices more than 200 percent higher. Reining in investment in China is already leading to softer commodity prices.

That said, a gradual rebalancing in the distribution of national income towards the household sector means opportunities elsewhere. Booming demand for dairy products have tripled New Zealand's exports to China in five years and appetite for beef is driving exports in Australia, Uruguay and Argentina.

"China's rebalancing presents disadvantages for some developing economies, but opportunities as well. A world without Chinese rebalancing, on the other hand, is likely to be more volatile," said David Dollar, a senior fellow with Brookings. Economists generally believe consumption-driven economies are less prone to boom-bust cycles than investment-driven ones.

Double-digit growth in workers' wages also means China is losing its comparative advantage in labor-intensive activities, which Dollar said would make way for lower-wage developing economies.

China's rebalancing also means lower domestic saving rates and greater outbound investment. China is already rapidly emerging as a major source of foreign direct investment, which could benefit economies around the world.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 精品一区二区三区波多野结衣 | 欧美一级特黄特色大片免费 | 一级一片 | 国产福利最新手机在线观看 | 成年视频在线 | 国产99精品一区二区三区免费 | 看片免费黄 | 国产私拍福利精品视频推出 | 一本久久a久久精品亚洲 | 本道久久综合88全国最大色 | 国产高清在线精品一区在线 | 亚洲欧美日本视频 | 欧美三级在线看 | 99久久成人国产精品免费 | 中文亚洲欧美 | 黑人一级大毛片 | freexxxx性特大另类ww | 久久99国产亚洲精品观看 | 草久在线视频 | 一级做a爰片久久毛片苍井优 | 国产页| 亚洲深夜 | 一级风流片a级国产 | 91情侣在线偷精品国产 | 国产成人精品在线观看 | 日韩精品亚洲人成在线观看 | 久久骚| 真实国产乱人伦在线视频播放 | 91av成年影院在线播放 | 国产美女视频黄a视频全免费网站 | 草草影院第一页yycccom | 中文字幕日韩一区二区不卡 | 欧美特级特黄a大片免费 | 国产91精品在线 | www.午夜 | 久久看视频 | www.91香蕉视频 | 亚洲成人手机在线 | 伊人成人在线视频 | 欧美一级特毛片 | 免费99视频 |