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Housing prices may 'fall sharply'

By Wang Qian (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-04-02 07:46

Property prices in the country are likely to see a "sharp drop" next year, when a number of low-income housing projects come up, a local newspaper reported yesterday.

Related readings:  Further downside seen in mainland property  China's 'second-tier' cities will fuel property growth  China's property market sees growing sales  Property price drops 1.2% in February

"A slump in housing prices is just around the corner. Some 50,000 low-income houses will complete construction next year, which will bring down the prices," Dai Jianzhong, deputy director with the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences (BASS), was quoted as saying in the Beijing Times.

From January to September, the total price of commercial residences was nearly half of what it stood at during the same period in 2007, a BASS report released on Tuesday said.

Up to January this year, Beijing's housing prices have been on the rise, even though the rise has been relatively slow, which made potential homebuyers cautious, Dai said.

Last year, the annual average personal income in the capital was less than 66,000 yuan ($9,700) and the average housing price was about 15,000 yuan per sq m. Simply put, if you wanted to buy a 100-sq-m house, you would have to work for 23 years without spending a penny.

Beijing's housing prices are obviously higher than what common residents can afford, the report said.

Dai said that the monthly average disposable income for a family in Beijing is 5,672 yuan, including the average monthly mortgage payment of 4,000 yuan. "The rest is not enough for the family to survive."

The report said: "More than 10 million sq m of houses are vacant, which is a third of the total space.

"The government should try and restrain housing prices by lowering the fees to transfer land, which accounts for 35 percent of the developers' total investment."

An online poll at sina.com showed that 71.2 percent of the 12,453 respondents thought that property prices will drop.