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China is exception in bleak picture for BRICS nations

By Andrew Moody | China Daily | Updated: 2013-07-29 07:18

"It is not just about size, although China's economy is three to four times bigger. The differences are much deeper. The Chinese model of strong central leadership would just not work in India since it is so diverse, almost like a continent. Sixty percent of Indians don't speak Hindi or English, which means they have no common language," he says.

"The only thing they (the two countries) have in common is geographical proximity and large populations - nothing else."

The rising stars, according to Sharma, are countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines (he is impressed by the reforms made by President Benigno Aquino since he came to power in 2010) and African countries such as Kenya and Nigeria.

"I think within a decade Nigeria will become the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, overtaking South Africa.

"South Africa usurped this title of being the leader of Africa but I don't think other African countries will stand for this for too long because it is not doing well economically."

Sharma argues that a false notion was allowed to develop in the last decade on the back of the BRICS' success that all countries were heading toward becoming high income developed nations.

"It is not an inevitability that everywhere will develop. High growth is, in fact, very difficult. I make the point in the book that only about a third of the economies in the world are able to grow at 5 percent at any one time. The odds of them repeating it for a second decade is one in four and for a third decade is one in 10."

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