www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Business
Home / Business / Macro

China's stabilizing influence

By Alfred Romann in Hong Kong | China Daily | Updated: 2013-09-23 06:53

But good news has been fairly even across the economy. The export outlook may also be improving as demand from developed economies grows and the government continues with plans to eliminate overcapacity.

"The rise of the official PMI was mainly driven by 'new orders' suggesting the ongoing sequential recovery starts to be driven by external demand even although domestic demand is still the main driving force," added Lu.

Good news for China can be viewed as good news for much of the region.

The increasingly large economy has an ever-growing impact on the rest of the world and particularly on those nearby economies with particularly close links. The prospect of a hard landing in China is enough to scare even the sturdiest of policymakers.

In a recent paper, Moody's Analytics economists painted a scary picture of what a hard landing in China would look like. Although less severe than the 2008 global financial crisis, the impact would be severe.

An output gap of about 5 percent of GDP in the Chinese mainland would have a severe effect on economies such as Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea.

Singapore, for example, could see output drop by as much as 10 percent of GDP. South Korea's output could drop by about 6 percent. The others would be somewhere in the middle.

Less affected would be other countries, such as Japan, India, New Zealand, the Philippines, Indonesia or Australia. Japan could see a gap of 5 percent while Australia would likely lose out on about 1 percent of its GDP.

"China clearly has a big impact but any hard landing there would affect the rest of Asia less than the 2008/09 global financial crisis," says Moody's Chan.

Part of the reason for this lower impact is the role China plays in export markets. China is the biggest export destination for many products but it is not always the final one.

Electronics and components, for example, are exported to China and assembled into full products that are then shipped to sellers in the US, Europe or even back to the countries from which the components originally came.

Continuing demand abroad for products that pass through China would temper a hard landing.

In other words, growth in the US would slow slightly but it would not come close to pushing the country into any kind of recession, according to Moody's Analytics.

Countries such as Malaysia and Thailand would suffer more because they rely on China to purchase about 12 percent of their exports. The domino effect would also hit private consumption in those countries, not only as a result of lower wages and lost jobs but also because of the negative effect of bad news coming from China.

This is a worst-case scenario that would exacerbate a shift already underway.

"For the most part, the emerging market universe is undergoing a serious re-pricing of risk via higher borrowing costs, equity market losses and major FX depreciation," says Ghosh. 

Previous 1 2 Next

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产精品久久自在自线观看 | 性视频福利在线看 | 九九精品视频一区在线 | 男女视频免费观看 | 精品视自拍视频在线观看 | 男人的天堂久久香蕉国产 | 国产成人精品一区二区三区 | 精品欧美亚洲韩国日本久久 | 日本在线观看免费视频网址 | 久久97视频| aaaaaa级特色特黄的毛片 | 欧美另类色 | 色哟哟国产成人精品 | 久久精品国产99国产 | 亚洲视频中文字幕在线观看 | 国产一级成人毛片 | 九九九九精品视频在线播放 | 精品成人一区二区三区免费视频 | 性欧美高清come | 亚洲免费精品视频 | 日韩性大片免费 | 色涩五月天| 国产色手机在线观看播放 | 国产一区曰韩二区欧美三区 | 国产精品夜色视频一区二区 | 国产精品久久久久久久人热 | www.久操| 免费一级欧美片片线观看 | 精品国产免费人成高清 | 国产一区二区日韩欧美在线 | 波多野结衣在线观看3人 | 亚洲女视频 | 国产a精品三级 | 国产亚洲精品久久久久久久久激情 | 国产成人一区二区三区影院免费 | 中文在线亚洲 | 久久免费公开视频 | 久久综合狠狠综合狠狠 | 亚洲国产第一区二区三区 | 久久亚洲国产精品 | 免费看一片 |