www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

Make me your Homepage
left corner left corner
China Daily Website

PBOC expected to maintain monetary stance

Updated: 2013-12-12 15:18
( Xinhua)

BEIJING - Higher-than-expected growth in China's new RMB lending and total social financing in November indicates that China's liquidity conditions remain favorable for 7.5 percent or higher GDP growth, and the central bank is likely to maintain its monetary stance, economists said.

Market participants had been worried over possible credit tightening measures by the central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), due to a jump in yields on Chinese government bonds (CGB) in mid-November.

Last month, CGB yields soared, with the 10-year CGB yield jumping to 4.7 percent on Nov 20 -- the highest level in nine years -- from a mere 3.23 percent in mid-June.

The 10-year CGB yield retreated to 4.43 percent on Nov 27. At the time, markets worried that the rise in bond yields was engineered by the PBOC to reduce leverage and slow credit growth.

Beating expectations

The PBOC on Wednesday released figures on November's money supply, new loans and total social financing (TSF), which is a broader measure of liquidity in the world's second-largest economy.

New bank loans and TSF rebounded notably to 624.6 billion yuan ($102 billion) and 1,230 billion yuan in November, PBOC data revealed.

November's new loans represented an increase of 118.6 billion yuan, or 23.4 percent, from the previous month. The figure was also well beyond the market forecast of 580 billion yuan.

TSF in November was 43.7 percent higher than in October, a 374 billion yuan month-on-month increase. It also beat market expectations of 920 billion yuan.

Broad money supply (M2), which covers cash in circulation and all deposits, rose 14.2 percent year on year in November, down from the 14.3-percent growth rate in October, which was in line with market expectations.

"Growth in both M2 money supply and bank loans, the more reliable indicators for the liquidity available for the real economy, cooled only marginally to 14.2 percent year on year last month, [which] suggested that 'liquidity tightening' talks are exaggerated," an HSBC research team led by chief China economist Qu Hongbin said in a note.

A research team with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch led by chief China economist Lu Ting attributed robust credit demand to three reasons.

Lu's team said the rebound of GDP growth to 7.8 percent in the third quarter from 7.5 percent in the second quarter boosted confidence.

Another factor is that messages from the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee last month were overall positive for confidence.

Finally, external demand seems to have improved thanks to the recovery in the US and euro zone, as evidenced by the better-than-expected 12.7 percent export growth in November.

Lu Ting said he believes that the recent rise in bond yields and average interbank rates was mainly due to the bottom-up interest rate liberalization by banks and other financial institutions in China.

Unchanged monetary stance

Qu, of HSBC, said he expects China's overall liquidity conditions to remain relatively accommodating, despite the relatively high interbank lending rates, which may stay higher for longer according to HSBC's research.

The current relatively accommodating monetary conditions should be sufficient to support real GDP growth rates of above 7.5 percent while keeping headline inflation around 3 percent in the coming quarters, he said.

In early 2013, the Chinese government set its economic work targets, with GDP growth targeted around 7.5 percent and the consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, capped at around 3.5 percent.

"We see little need for [the] central bank [to] change its monetary stance in the near term," Qu added.

Lu Ting agreed, saying that he believes China's monetary policy could remain neutral in December 2013 and 2014, even though money market rates and bond yields could rise a bit further.

Bank loan growth could remain around 14 percent in 2014, while TSF growth could moderate to around 16 to 17 percent as the problem of double counting is lessened.

"We expect the government to maintain neutral monetary and fiscal policies in the next couple of quarters while increasing their efforts on drafting and carrying out structural reforms," Lu said.

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, also said the Chinese government would likely follow a relatively prudent monetary and credit policy stance.

She said she expects TSF growth to slow to about 16 percent in 2014.

"Given the ongoing interest rate liberalization and financial deregulation processes, credit growth could again exceed the government's desired pace in 2014," she added.

 
8.03K
 
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 中文字幕精品一区二区三区视频 | 国产一区二区亚洲精品 | 毛片啪啪视频 | 91久久免费视频 | 免费国产一级特黄久久 | 免费一级肉体全黄毛片高清 | 真人毛片 | 久久经典免费视频 | 男人和女人的做刺激性视频 | 中文字幕亚洲欧美日韩不卡 | 在线 中文字幕 日韩 欧美 | 成人免费真人毛片视频 | 国产三级麻豆 | 一级毛毛片毛片毛片毛片在线看 | 国产孕妇做受视频在线观看 | 国产成人精品日本亚洲网站 | 成人免费视频在线看 | 欧美一级毛片免费观看 | 三级中文字幕永久在线视频 | 欧美激情视频一级视频一级毛片 | 欧美大片aaaa一级毛片 | 中国a级淫片免费播放 | 免费观看一级特黄三大片视频 | 欧美另类视频在线观看 | 成年网站免费 | 国产性自拍 | 成年女人在线观看片免费视频 | 黄a视频 | 亚洲欧美日本人成在线观看 | 最新毛片久热97免费精品视频 | 亚洲自拍偷拍网 | 毛片视频在线免费观看 | 国产一区二区三区精品视频 | 中文字幕一二三区乱码老 | 中文乱码一二三四有限公司 | 国产日本一区二区三区 | 68久久久久欧美精品观看 | 国产日韩欧美精品 | 亚洲综合射 | 99久久国产综合精品五月天 | 久草在线首页 |