www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / Markets

Systemic banking crisis not in sight, analyst says

By Wang Tao (China Daily) Updated: 2014-04-01 13:48

Key differences with US mean that Lehman-style shock remains unlikely

Systemic banking crisis not in sight, analyst says

Wang Tao, chief China economist,UBS AG 
As more trust and wealth management products mature and as the economy slows this year, the number of payment issues and defaults hitting headlines will inevitably rise. However, a systemic "Lehman-style" financial crisis remains highly unlikely in our view.

With the same 7.5 percent gross domestic product growth target and 13 percent M2 money supply target maintained for this year, it is unlikely policymakers will allow credit growth to slow much, hence our expectation is for overall credit to expand by 16 percent this year. That said, heightened liquidity and credit volatility will persist and remain a key risk for China this year, as interest rate liberalization continues to unfold, shadow credit defaults increase and the government tries to slow the pace of leveraging. While this is not our view, should a cluster of defaults trigger a meaningful loss of confidence in the shadow banking market, leading to liquidity shrinkage in those markets, a financial system meltdown akin to what occurred in the US in 2008 should not result, for four key reasons.

First is size. China's non-bank financial intermediation or shadow banking system is much smaller relative to the size of its overall financial system when compared with many developed economies such as the US. At the end of 2013, we estimate that China's shadow banking system ranged between 30 to 40 trillion yuan ($4.8 trillion to $6.4 trillion, 50 to 70 percent of GDP) compared with the 117 percent global average and 170 percent for the US at the end of 2012. The latter information was compiled by the Financial Stability Board, which also reported a much smaller China number of 25 percent of GDP. As a share of total system credit, China's shadow banking system accounted for just under 25 percent of the total, compared with the global average of 34 percent and the US' 65 percent. (Our broader definition puts China's at 25 to 33.3 percent.)

Wang Tao's earlier articles

Is China losing competitiveness or moving up value chain?

UBS cuts 2014 China CPI forecast to 2.7%

Aiming for both growth and reform

Don't worry about aggressive credit tightening

Previous Page 1 2 3 Next Page

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 久久精品在线免费观看 | 成人网18免费软件大全 | 理论片日韩 | 国内91视频| 成人亚洲网站 | 国产韩国精品一区二区三区 | 欧美一区不卡二区不卡三区 | 国产成人在线播放视频 | 久久综合99re88久久爱 | 碰碰久久 | 久久视频免费在线观看 | 中文字幕在线一区二区在线 | 国产一级不卡毛片 | www.亚洲黄色 | 国产精品永久免费自在线观看 | 欧美经典成人在观看线视频 | 亚洲haose在线观看 | 欧美丝袜xxxxx在线播放 | 日本高清专区一区二无线 | 国产美女三级做爰 | 亚洲国产欧美在线人成 | 欧美三级一级 | 国产亚洲精品久久 | 国内精品久久久久久网站 | 美国一级毛片免费看 | 手机免费看a | 日韩免费a级在线观看 | 国产短视频精品一区二区三区 | 九九99视频在线观看视频观看 | 亚洲性无码av在线 | 北岛玲亚洲一区在线观看 | 成人三级精品视频在线观看 | 国产一级aaaaa毛片欧美 | 亚洲日韩aⅴ在线视频 | 国产成人最新毛片基地 | 国产99久9在线视频 国产99久久 | 成人18视频在线 | 亚洲精品午夜一区二区在线观看 | 亚洲精品免费网站 | 特级片在线观看 | 免费一级毛片无毒不卡 |