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When less might actually mean more

(China Daily) Updated: 2014-10-28 07:26

A1: We forecast 7.2 percent GDP growth for the fourth quarter, resulting in 7.3 percent growth for the year as a whole.

When less might actually mean more

Louis Kuijs, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland PLC.

GDP expansion slowed in the third quarter as real estate downturn and weak corporate investment took their toll, although September showed some rebound in growth. But those factors were offset by decent exports and the fact that there is more to China's domestic demand than real estate.

A2: Factoring in continued downward pressure from real estate and somewhat better global trade growth, we forecast GDP growth of 7.2 percent for 2015.

We expect the recent pattern to continue, with real estate weakness weighing on the economy in 2015 and keeping the growth outlook subdued, but not alarmingly so. Barring a major further slowdown, we expect the policy stance to remain relatively restrained.

A3: The outlook for organic growth is subdued but not alarming. Dragged down by the real estate downturn and weak corporate investment, growth momentum is clearly subdued. But as indicated by the rebound in September, it is not weakening for now.

We expect growth to remain subdued through 2015 but not to deteriorate significantly. As to key drivers, in spite of the recent measures, we do not expect a recovery in construction anytime soon.

A4: Senior policymakers, including Premier Li Keqiang and Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, have said that they can accept GDP growth undershooting their target somewhat, as long as labor market and household income developments remain satisfactory, which is the case.

We expect the policy stance to remain supportive of growth through the stimulation of infrastructure investment, further relaxing of property market policies and more "targeted" monetary easing.

In our view, the government will not resort to more significant and higher-profile steps unless growth takes another turn for the worse. If that did happen, we can imagine more significant, higher-profile measures. Those steps could include a cut in benchmark lending rates.

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