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2015 monetary policy, prudent with fine-tuning

(Xinhua) Updated: 2015-01-14 13:38

He expected policy easing in the form of an RRR cut, interest rate cut, a rise of total social financing or even an official statement indicating policy shift.

"We forecast the first RRR cut in Q1 and first rate cut in Q2, more likely to start in March," Zhang added.

JP Morgan's chief China economist Zhu Haibin said weak domestic demand and low inflation will create a loose trend for the monetary policy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, growth in the consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, rebounded slightly to 1.5 percent in December from November's 1.4 percent, its slowest increase since November 2009.

The producer price index (PPI) slumped 3.3 percent in December from one year earlier, the sharpest fall in more than two years, and dropped 1.2 percent year on year in 2014.

Easing inflationary pressure will give the central bank more room to initiate measures to support growth.

"Our forecast looks for average CPI at 1.5 percent and PPI at 1.5 percent in 2015," Zhu said, "Low inflation and PPI deflation will become the bigger concern."

He also believes one interest rate cut and two RRR cuts will happen, and are more possible in Q1 and Q2, which will likely be accomplished by other quantitative measures like MLF and PSL.

In the first 10 months of 2014, the PBOC refrained from traditional monetary easing like rate cuts and RRR cuts, but an unexpected rate cut was announced in November.

On Nov 21, 2014, the central bank cut benchmark interest rates for the first time since the summer of 2012, fanning speculation that further moves like RRR cuts would follow in the coming months as 2014's growth figures are likely to register at the slowest pace in more than a decade.

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