www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

Home / Experts

China's doomsday a wishful thinking of opportunists

By Xie Tao (chinadaily.com.cn)

Updated: 2016-02-22 14:02:19

8.03K

China's doomsday a wishful thinking of opportunists

A factory worker is making steel. [Photo/Xinhua]

Amidst unmistakable signs of China’s economic slowdown, some Western observers begin to wonder if China’s doomsday is coming.

"The country’s extraordinary economic difficulties will result in a collapse or a long-term decline, and either outcome suggests China will return to the ranks of weak states," wrote Gordon Chang in a December 2015 National Interest commentary. Then in a January 2016 Foreign Affairs article, Daniel Lynch, a professor at the University of Southern California, argued that China’s rise is ending, though he made it clear that "saying China’s rise is ending is not the same as saying the country will collapse."

It is too early to pass judgment on this new round of China prophecy, but history offers us some useful clues. Gordon Chang published The Coming Collapse of China in 2001. "The end of the modern Chinese state is near," he asserted. "The People’s Republic has five years, perhaps ten, before it falls." China didn’t collapse in 2006 or 2011. "So, yes, my prediction was wrong," he admitted in a Foreign Policy article ("The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition"). But he remained convinced about the imminence of a Chinese apocalypse and offered a new timeline: "Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it."

Why do people like Gordon Chang keep predicting the coming collapse of China? For many observers, a wealthy and powerful China represents the biggest threat to Western liberal democracy. It is a zero-sum game: either China wins, or liberal democracy triumphs. China thus becomes the most important roadblock in their efforts to preach and promote liberal democracy around the world. "The end of history" will not arrive until and unless "the China Model" fails.

For some analysts, predicting China’s future is as irresistible as forecasting the winner of the 2016 presidential election. Given the size of China—geopolitical, economic, and demographic—it is simply one of the biggest prizes for any prophet. If you get it right, you will have instant fame, plus a lucrative lecture tour around the world or a position at a prestigious research institution or an important government agency. If you get it wrong—as Gordon Chang did repeatedly—you may shrug off skeptics, or come up with a revised prediction.

It is human nature to think ahead and plan ahead. That’s why we have statistical models to predict tomorrow’s weather or stock markets. But once ideology or other political bias comes into play, prediction becomes wishful thinking; it is like drawing the color of the sky when you are wearing a pair of sunglasses.

A more important question for those doomsayers about China is why the Chinese Communist Party has managed to stay in power for so long and to produce so impressive a record of economic development."All societies, authoritarian and democratic, are subject to decay over time," wrote Francis Fukuyama. "The real issue is their ability to adapt and eventually fix themselves." The Chinese party-state may be undergoing political and economic decay — just like most Western democracies — but it is too early to proclaim the collapse of China.

Xie Tao?is a professor and associate Dean?at School of English and International Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies University

主站蜘蛛池模板: 99精品一区二区免费视频 | 热99re久久精品2久久久 | 高清性色生活片欧美在线 | 久国产| 中国一级淫片aaa毛片毛片 | 国产免费一区不卡在线 | a毛片全部免费播放 | 国产专区一区 | 黄人成a动漫片免费网站 | 久久综合成人网 | 亚洲欧美另类色妞网站 | 国产一区二区在线观看视频 | 亚洲欧美综合国产精品一区 | 欧美色视频日本片免费高清 | 国产成人精品综合久久久软件 | 国产精品三级国语在线看 | 香港一级特黄高清免费 | 欧美久久一区二区 | 很黄很暴力深夜爽爽无遮挡 | 亚洲成年人免费网站 | 国产一区二区亚洲精品 | 老司机亚洲精品影院在线 | 欧美一级二级片 | 亚洲最大成人 | a级黄色毛片免费播放视频 a级精品九九九大片免费看 | 欧美孕交视频 | 久久亚洲国产高清 | 免费99视频| 91久久国产精品 | 精品亚洲大全 | 国产精品自拍第一页 | 日韩在线视频不卡一区二区三区 | 在线a亚洲视频播放在线观看 | 精品一区二区三区视频 | 免费91最新地址永久入口 | 成人欧美一区二区三区在线观看 | 欧美日韩精品一区二区视频在线观看 | a级片免费观看视频 | 400部大量精品情侣网站 | 国产欧美日韩在线不卡第一页 | 9久久99久久久精品齐齐综合色圆 |