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2001-05-29 09:49:58
Trade war to be short-lived
  Author: JIA HEPENG
 
  The Japanese Government's protective measures against Chinese goods might be enhanced in the short term, but they will not become a long-time policy pursued by the Koizumi administration, experts told Business Weekly.

Their comments came after Japan adopted late last month 200-day provisional trade curbs against three farming products, mainly imported from China. The Japanese cabinet also passed on May 18 its 2001 white paper on international trade, stating that "the emergence of China and other elements" have fostered "a fiercely competitive environment."

Zhang Shuying, a senior researcher from the Japan Research Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was eager to pander to the Japanese people at a time when his Liberty Democratic Party (LDP) had lost its prestige, so appeals from Japanese manufacturers to limit the import of Chinese goods were authorized.

Koizumi has vowed to recapture the LDP's majority status in the Japanese senate election to be held in July.

The newly-released white paper, which spends much space describing China's rising competitiveness and its impact on Asian economic patterns, is also considered by Chinese experts as a signal that Japan would increase its trade threshold.

"The document intensifies people's concerns that China is challenging Japan's leading position in the Asian economy," Zhang said, "and this makes appeals to curb Chinese goods more poignant."

Recently, Japan's industrial associations for garments, bicycles, towels and chopsticks successively appealed to the government for restrictions on the imports of cheaper Chinese goods.

But according to Zhang, considering cheaper Chinese agricultural and industrial products are competitive in Japan's market and help lower its domestic prices at a time when the country is suffering a serious economic slump, Koizumi is unlikely to pursue restrictive trade measures for long.

Professor Nishikawa Jun from Japan's Waseda University, who argued that the import curb on the farm products was due to sudden increase of their imports, also said that it was obvious that the Japanese Government cannot continue these measures when the situation stabilizes.

Since Koizumi came to power late last month, he has shown a strong political stance, clearly expressing his wish to visit the Yasukuni Shrine - where Japan's war criminals from World War II are also remembered - in his capacity of prime minister.

These actions have caused concerns that stronger protective policies will be expanded to Japan's economic and trade areas.

But Professor Cao Hongyue from the University of International Business and Economics said industries need not worry.

Since Japan took restrictive measures against improving farming products, countries like the United States have voiced their concern that Japan will divert from its free trade status.

Cao agreed that the Koizumi administration was trying to appease people with the import restriction, but he added that due to Japan's long inspection and evaluation process on such measures, the nation was unlikely to introduce them rapidly.

He was supported by Hu Xinxin, another expert at Zhang's institute, who claims that Japanese-invested factories in China will be harmed by its import curbs, because nearly half of the Chinese products exported to Japan are produced by these factories.

After Japan's import curbs were launched last month, the Chinese trade ministry warned that unless the restrictions were removed, China would be forced to take retaliatory measures.

Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Takeo Hiranuma also stressed recently that restrictive measures should be adopted cautiously.

The common interests between the two countries lie not only in the mutual trade.

"Besides exporting cheaper goods enjoyed by Japanese consumers, China is also important to Japan in that Japan can transfer its disadvantageous production to the country so as to upgrade its manufacturing structure," Zhang said.

During talks held in Beijing last Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and his Japanese counterpart Makiko Tanaka agreed that progress in bilateral relations would have a major impact on world stability.

China is the first country Tanaka has visited in her role as foreign minister.

Trade between China and Japan hit US$85.7 billion last year. Japan is China's largest trade partner and China, after the United States, is Japan's second.

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