Extra stimulus spending, 2011 growth likely: Morgan Stanley
Updated: 2009-11-11 08:21
By Joey Kwok(HK Edition)
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HONG KONG: China's economy is likely to see a strong rebound in early 2011, as the Chinese government may provide another economic stimulus package in the middle of next year, Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach said yesterday.
Speaking at an American Chamber of Commerce event in Hong Kong, Roach said the central government's 4-trillion-yuan economic stimulus package, which currently is energizing the mainland economy, will begin to fade in the second half of 2010.
"Without the export pick-up and investment stimulus, the Chinese growth rate will slow again around the middle of next year," Roach told reporters in Hong Kong.
He estimated that China's economy may slow below 8 percent growth in GDP, before the proposed second injection of the economic stimulus package kicks in.
Roach, however, believes the Chinese government is determined to maintain economic growth at around 8 percent, in order to avoid a renewed jump in the number of unemployed migrant workers on the mainland.
"I think that there will be another stimulus in the second half of next year and that the growth rate will probably begin to pick up again in early 2011," he said.
The central government announced the 4-trillion-yuan economic stimulus package in November last year to counter the impact of the global economic slowdown. The stimulus package was the largest ever in the country, and featured plans to invest in many major areas that include national infrastructure and social welfare projects by the end of 2010.
Roach, meanwhile, expects the Chinese government will not allow its currency to appreciate in the near term, lest it hinder the development of the financial system.
"China needs a stable currency as an anchor for its new financial system and I fully support the Chinese authorities in maintaining that anchor focusing on and as a linchpin of a new financial system," he said, adding that the yuan is unlikely to become fully convertible in the next 7 to 10 years.
US President Barack Obama said in an interview with Reuters on Monday that he plans to raise the issue of the yuan currency during his visit to Beijing next week.
"Currency, along with a host of other issues, will come up, and I'm confident that both the United States and China can arrive at a broad set of policies that encourages trade that benefits both countries," Obama said.
US manufacturers have been complaining that the "undervalued" Renminbi makes Chinese exports cheaper and American goods more expensive for the Chinese consumers.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said yesterday that the country would keep improving the yuan's exchange rate mechanism to make the currency more flexible.
(HK Edition 11/11/2009 page3)