Credit Suisse lowers HK economy's growth forecast
Updated: 2012-09-29 06:35
By Sophie He(HK Edition)
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Credit Suisse Group AG's headquarters in Zurich. Gianluca Colla / Bloomberg |
Credit Suisse has joined Hong Kong economy's growing bear camp to cut its 2012 growth forecast to 1.4 percent from 2 percent, as the investment bank believes that the continued domestic demand weakness will weigh further on growth.
The Hong Kong economy grew by only 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2012 versus the same period a year earlier and contracted sequentially, with retail sales and exports continuing to disappoint the market. There is a chance the economy will record another sequential contraction in the third quarter of 2012, pushing the economy into a technical recession, Credit Suisse economist Christiaan Tuntono said in a report.
The investment bank also revised its city's GDP growth forecast in 2013 from 3.9 percent to 3.4 percent.
Tuntono pointed out that consumption is losing momentum as the retail sales volume only increased 1.3 percent year-on-year in July, versus the 7.3 percent growth in the second quarter. Credit Suisse expects the retail sales growth to continue to disappoint in August and September.
"With the Shenzhen 'non-resident multiple visa plan' postponed, we don't think consumption will see a significant rebound to justify the record high rental costs of some premier retail stores," said Tuntono.
Although Credit Suisse cut its projection on Hong Kong's GDP growth, its view is still not the most pessimistic. Both J P Morgan and Fitch Ratings issued research reports a few days ago, reiterating that Hong Kong's GDP growth in 2012 is expected to be around 1.2 percent.
J P Morgan said in its report that as the demand condition of the developed markets remains cloudy, Hong Kong's export sector will continue to feel the stress going ahead; however, a moderate recovery on the mainland economy should provide some support for stabilization in the growth momentum. Overall, the full-year GDP growth is expected to remain at 1.2 percent for 2012.
Meanwhile, Credit Suisse believes that the high rent has driven the property market in Hong Kong into "madness".
Tao Dong, managing director of non-Japan Asia Economics at Credit Suisse, told a press conference in Hong Kong on Friday that he has just sold one of the properties he owns in Hong Kong on Thursday.
The trigger to Tao's move is that a Taiwanese restaurant he loves is about to go out of business as the monthly rent was increased to HK$220,000 from HK$60,000.
"This (kind of rent hiking) is no different than killing the goose that lays the golden eggs," said Tao, adding that Hong Kong's property market may not collapse in the short term, but it is definitely not sustainable in the long term.
Credit Suisse also cut its forecast on China's GDP growth in 2012 and 2013 to 7.5 percent, down from 7.7 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively.
Tao Dong said he expects the central bank to cut the lending and deposit rates by three more times, at around 25 basis points each time in each quarter until mid-2013.
sophiehe@chinadailyhk.com
(HK Edition 09/29/2012 page2)