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Recent developments confirm my comment on the "perpetual mobilization" of Hong Kong. A perpetual mobilization has both strengths and weaknesses. On the one hand, the rallies have attracted an increasing number of new blood, a lot of them young students. This fact would no doubt cheer up the dissidents. On the other hand, a perpetual mobilization is always on the verge of over-mobilization, those who consistently participate are only those who are professionalized and radicalized.

Who in their right mind would go to a rally on Jan 1 asking for CY Leung to step down, then a week later to another demonstration denouncing police mistreatment in the previous anti-CY rally, then a few days later to yet another gathering outside the Legislative Council in support of the impeachment? Presumably there may still be at least one more event scheduled this month after the policy address, to express the dissidents' discontent.

There may have been quite a number of people in the street on January 1, as in some but not all of the previous July 1 and Jan 1 rallies, but the dissidents are kidding themselves if they think they have a sustained and focused mass movement. People are willing to join the marches from time to time, but they are not willing to march every week.

Behind the current state of perpetual mobilization, i.e. small and radical groups of determined protesters, there are the efforts of professional activists. They appear traditionally as NGO and political party employees, but more recently this category of jobs has become much more difficult to define.

The line between news media and political groups has been blurred for a long time, but recently established (or failed to establish) digital broadcasting companies and online media outlets have taken this phenomenon up to another level. Now they not only produce news, but also cultural icons with dubious fortunes eager to provide the social movements with thoughtful leadership.

Similarly, entertainment and politics are also increasingly intermingled. Pop singers and movie stars become spokespersons for different movements, and a DJ got elected into the Legislative Council. His sponsor produced profit-making anti-Chinese porn movies. Dissident politics is not only righteous, fun, but also profitable. How could we not love it?

In the 2009/10 Policy Address, then Chief Executive Donald Tsang unveiled new incentives, including accommodative regulations, land policy, financial incentives and human resources, to nurture six new industries. These industries were testing and certification, medical services, innovation and technology, culture and creative industries, environmental industry and education services. People were skeptical about the government's ability to promote these new industries, but now they can rest assured that at least one - the culture and creative industry - is up and coming.

This cultural industry's sole mission is to keep the current administration weak. All the talk about CY stepping down is pure hypocritical nonsense, as our lovely Mrs Anson Chan has already pointed out. They want him wounded, not dead, and therefore all their slogans are nothing but lies. The real plan is to weaken CY till 2017 and put somebody they like onto the throne. They don't really care if there will be universal suffrage in 2017 or not, as long as their buddy gets elected.

Now we can make sense of the otherwise incomprehensible timing of the impeachment. Why would a person in his or her right mind impeach CY at this moment? What if CY is going to formulate some important policies in his first address a week later? What if he is going to announce a universal pension scheme and all the other goodies? Should we then organize another protest to reinstate him?

Perhaps CY will not be giving us the treat, but he is not going to be impeached anyway. I can foresee that the number of people who are going to "surround" the Legislative Council to coerce Councilors into impeaching CY will also be limited.

I will not say that the "silent majority" is pro-CY, but most of us in Hong Kong still have hope in the government and we are reasonable. Meet our expectations, give us something concrete, fulfill election promises, and we will support CY during his current term, if not also the next.

The author is a member of the Commission on Strategic Development.

(HK Edition 01/11/2013 page3)