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'Referendum' that is not

Lee Ming-sang

Two public opinion pollsters affiliated with local universities launched a joint online voting platform called the PopVote Civil Referendum Project (PVCRP) that will let people vote on issues of public interest raised by voters themselves. The concept sounds kind of cool, but the project has obvious loopholes big enough to flush its credibility down the drain.

Members of the public must keep that in mind when they are tempted to vote on that website. For a statistical pool open to all Hong Kong residents, its sampling take is no doubt the most important determinant of credibility. Unfortunately the PVCRP falls far short in both quantity and quality as far as sampling goes and therefore will give the "referendum" a bad name.

First of all, there is no question that when it comes to sample size, bigger is better. Due to funding shortage, the PVCRP operators hope to raise HK$800,000 initially, and the platform can only handle an estimated sample size of 800,000. That number is about 11 percent of Hong Kong's around 7 million population or 23 percent of registered voters -- 3.46 million last year. While there is no guarantee so many voters will cast their "ballots" on each issue, past experience also tells us this kind of online polling can be easily manipulated by fraudulent tricks such as repeated voting, thus rendering poll results highly unreliable.

Then there is the question of quality. Of course the samples should be as widely representative as possible. But again, because of limited funding, the PVCRP cannot afford to run like conventional elections with polling stations set up in all districts. Therefore it will rely mainly on its Web-based digital polling site, with physical votes only as backup and probably to be collected at the two universities.

Despite easy access to the Internet and wide use of smartphones, many local residents do not have access to or know how to use the Internet with personal computers or smartphones, especially elderly citizens. Meanwhile, since physical votes will be collected at the two universities, which are located in Hong Kong and Kowloon, voters are most likely college students and people who happen to be nearby, while New Territories residents and elderly people in particular are unlikely to bother going.

Does it mean the "referendum" won't necessarily include choices of certain demographics?

The author is a Hong Kong Commercial Daily staff commentator. This is an excerpted translation of his article published on Jan 24.

Consensus key to land use

The Development Bureau announced on Wednesday that 238 residential buildings developed under the Civil Servants Co-operative Housing Scheme (CSCHS) can provide some 963,000 square meters in total building area if all are redeveloped. So far 11 of these buildings are under redevelopment after payment of land premiums.

This shows the government's housing policies spelled out in the first Policy Address (PA) have greater potential so far as land supply is guaranteed. The SAR government no doubt will try its very best to increase land supply for housing development, but making full use of available land still requires joint efforts by all of the society.

These CSCHS buildings are mostly low-density structures of only five stories and without lifts. They are therefore considered a major waste of precious space for residential development by today's standards. Built in the 1950s on lands allocated by the colonial government, these estates are not only old but poorly managed, which is why their vacancy rates are very high.

Occupying a total area of 30 hectares, these old low-rise apartments should be redeveloped to provide more public housing units. Some estimates put the potential at greater than 20,000 flats of 500 square feet each. The total can reach 22,300 if vacant usable dormitories for public servants are counted as well.

In response to the government's call for land supply solutions from all local residents, many people have said that the government can develop land parcels shunned by private developers into public housing estates. Some private developers reckon they can build residential estates on their own land reserves if the government is willing to waive land premiums. Some claim they can build affordable housing units to be sold at about HK$1,000,000 each.

Many owners of factory buildings have expressed willingness to turn their idle properties into residential estates if the authorities grant them favorable treatments. These opinions in the form of collective wisdom are worthy of careful consideration by our government.

This is an excerpted translation of a Wen Wei Po editorial published on Jan 24.

(HK Edition 01/25/2013 page3)