Shrugging off Brexit blues, perhaps it's time to scale new heights
Updated: 2016-08-01 07:41
By Peter Liang(HK Edition)
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In the aftermath of Brexit, investors' attention is now focused almost entirely on the US economy, of which positive data have emerged in the recent weeks. Maybe, it's time to shrug off the Brexit woes and concentrate on the local equity and property markets. Provided to China Daily |
It's been a little more than a month since Britain shocked the world by voting to quit the European Union (EU). While millions of Britons are still indulged in what has become known as the "great remain sulk", the rest of the world has long shrugged off the Brexit blues.
Even in the United Kingdom, the extent of the damage Brexit has inflicted on the British economy is subject to debate. The British pound has depreciated most significantly against the US dollar. It's been reported that many multinational firms in Britain are holding back investment plans amid the uncertainties in negotiations on trade and other economic arrangements with the EU.
British consumers have complained about the price increases for a wide range of imported goods arising from the currency depreciation. But the pound's fall has helped boost growth in exports of British goods and, more importantly, services.
What worries global investors most is the specter of Brexit-induced market turmoil. Some economists have warned that Brexit could trigger another global financial crisis.
But, in less than a week after the "leave" vote, jittery capital markets have regained their composure. The US stock market has since continued to scale new heights, while bond yields have slipped to record lows.
Hong Kong - the region's most international market - has embarked on a stocks rally that seems to have taken many investment analysts off guard. Investors are now calling Brexit as some kind of an economic aberration that had happened far away and long ago. Their attention is now focused almost entirely on the US economy.
The US is not only one of the SAR's key export markets - it has a direct influence on capital flow and the cost of funds through the linked exchange rate mechanism that pegs the Hong Kong dollar to the greenback. Such a mechanism has helped promote Hong Kong as a safe haven for capital, or hot money, on the strength of the US dollar.
Brexit has forced the International Monetary Fund and other august financial organizations to lower their forecasts of global economic growth for this year. But, for Hong Kong, the primary concern is how long the stock market rally will last and how high property prices will go.
(HK Edition 08/01/2016 page6)