久久亚洲国产成人影院-久久亚洲国产的中文-久久亚洲国产高清-久久亚洲国产精品-亚洲图片偷拍自拍-亚洲图色视频

'Trump watching' is now a market sport for investors

Updated: 2017-01-06 05:35

(HK Edition)

  Print Mail Large Medium  Small 分享按鈕 0

The "Trump effect" which emerged after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in early November is widely expected to continue to dominate world investment markets in 2017.

As we have seen in recent weeks, the expected impact of the Trump presidency on Hong Kong has been direct and immediate through interest rates and capital flows - the two key elements that move asset values. To make money or to avoid losing it, "Trump watching" is a market sport which every savvy investor needs to learn.

Trump will be sworn in as president in mid-January. Before that, everything is guesswork based on his campaign rhetoric and also the people he has chosen for his cabinet and advisory team.

What seems to have captured the attention of stock analysts most is the president-elect's professed fiscal policy of increasing public expenditure on infrastructure development to stimulate economic growth. This expansive policy, together with tax cuts as promised by Trump, would almost certainly widen the government deficit and boost aggregate demand. This would in turn push up wages and prices.

'Trump watching' is now a market sport for investors

The prospect of higher inflation is expected to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly in 2017 than was earlier expected. In these circumstances, the SAR will have no choice but to follow suit in order to defend the dollar peg.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city's de-facto central bank, raised the base rate to 1 percent last month in response to an increase of 25 basis points in US rates. The surprise jump in local rates sent the stock market into a tailspin with the benchmark indicator losing almost 400 points on that day.

Although the market quickly regained its footing, investor sentiment remained subdued. The biggest concern in the minds of investors is the prospect of a sudden and massive outflow of regional capital to the US to take advantage of the increasingly buoyant stock market and rapidly appreciating US dollar.

Capital inflows from various regional economies since the 2016 second quarter have been widely attributed to the local stock market rally and escalating property prices. The investment bonanza was further fueled by the abnormally low cost of borrowing offered by banks to compete for mortgage lending and personal loan businesses.

All this may change after the US rate hike in mid-December. To be sure, the Hong Kong government's resolve in defending the linked exchange rate system is well recognized. But the seemingly unstoppable appreciation of the US dollar may prompt more and more overseas investors to play it safe by shifting some of their money to the US from Hong Kong.

To keep the outflow of capital from turning into a torrent, Hong Kong will have to adjust its interest rates in step with the US, even if this is unwarranted under current domestic economic conditions. That scenario can put the housing market even further beyond the reach of the many prospective homebuyers.

Interest rate increases usually have the effect of depressing housing prices, making them more affordable to home buyers who are willing and able to put up with the increased borrowing cost. But this time, rising interest rates could lead to an increase in capital inflow into the property market, keeping home prices high.

Local homebuyers are out of luck. All they can do is to wait for the increase in the supply of government-built low-cost apartments for sale only to local people.

What do you do with your money other than keep it in the bank waiting for further rate increases? Some investment analysts suggest that buying stocks is not a bad idea as long as you don't expect a sizable capital appreciation.

Their hot picks include some of the major financial stocks which stand to benefit from rising interest rates. They particularly mentioned bank stocks with high dividend yields. The dividend payout of HSBC, the largest bank in Hong Kong, is expected to exceed 5 percent at current prices. This is more than double the interest on time deposits.

It's not clear whether Trump can make good on all the things he promised to do. But he is a new phenomenon who will affect global investment trends in the years to come. Keep your eye on the ball.

The author is a veteran current affairs commentator.

(HK Edition 01/06/2017 page1)

主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产亚洲欧美一区二区三区 | 日本理论在线播放 | 欧美国产日韩在线观看 | 久久精品视频3 | 九九爱精品 | 日韩一区二区三区视频在线观看 | 欧美日韩国产亚洲一区二区三区 | 中文字幕一区二区在线视频 | 欧美日韩一级大片 | 亚洲欧美另类色妞网站 | 鸥美毛片 | 欧美成人性生活视频 | 日韩一级特黄毛片在线看 | 韩国福利影视一区二区三区 | 亚洲一区免费视频 | 国产亚洲精品一区二区在线播放 | 国产亚洲欧美日韩在线观看不卡 | 亚洲精品手机在线 | 成人午夜爽爽爽免费视频 | 波多野结衣视频免费观看 | 欧美 亚洲 在线 | 波多野在线播放 | 久久99精品久久久久久野外 | 在线观看免费国产成人软件 | a理论片 | 性刺激欧美三级在线现看中文 | 国产成人精选免费视频 | 成年人网站黄 | 欧美一级片毛片 | 亚洲欧美国产精品专区久久 | 九草视频在线观看 | 欧美在线视频免费 | 欧美一级黄视频 | 日本草草影院 | 亚洲一区二区精品视频 | 中文字幕一级片 | 国产美女一级特黄毛片 | 亚洲国产精品自产拍在线播放 | 肥婆毛片 | 男操女b| 99国产精品欧美久久久久久影院 |