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Spain supporters react after Spain's Fernando Torres missed a scoring opportunity against Italy as they watch the Group C Euro 2012 soccer match on a giant screen at the port in Malaga, southern Spain, June 10, 2012.(Agencies) |
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Tired of the constant barrage of depressing headlines from the eurozone debt crisis, German economists have turned their skills to the rather more fun task of forecasting the European Championships. Using a variety of tongue-in-cheek models usually applied to complex questions of bond markets or credit default swaps, most analysts have ended up with far from earth-shattering tips, backing favourites Spain or Germany. The good news for people concerned for the future of the euro area is that the chances of a team from the 17-nation zone lifting Europe's premier football trophy is a whopping 86 percent, according to economists at DekaBank. Analysing the results of the past four European Championships and feeding it into a complex mathematical model, the economists came up with the prediction: "Along with Spain and the Netherlands, Germany is one of the favourites." In a research note entitled "Soccernomics", boffins at ABN Amro said their work was done with a "quasi-serious approach." "Because after all, football is the most important of all unimportant things. We certainly need some light relief these days. Europe -- in particular the eurozone -- has been engulfed in a crisis for two years now," they added. ABN Amro cross-checked a country's footballing record with its credit rating and concluded that Germany would be triumphant come the final of Europe's top footballing competition on July 1. For the eurozone as a whole, however, the research note concludes: "From an economic perspective, the best outcome would be a French victory" as it would boost confidence in one of the shakiest "core" eurozone nations. Economists at UniCredit really went to town, feeding in macroeconomic data to complex mathematical models in a bid to predict the winner. They calculated the worth of each individual team based on the transfer market value of their players and decided that the two semi-finals would be "genuine classics" pitting traditional rivals against each other. "Portugal (338 million euros) against Spain (658 million euros) and Germany (459 million euros) against England (392 million euros)" was the final prediction. (Read by Emily Cheng. Emily Cheng is a journalist at the China Daily Website.) (Agencies) |
德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家為不斷傳來(lái)的歐債危機(jī)壞消息疲倦不已。今年歐洲杯開(kāi)賽后，他們把自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)技巧應(yīng)用于更加有趣的工作：預(yù)測(cè)歐洲杯冠軍。 他們半開(kāi)玩笑地使用多種經(jīng)濟(jì)模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，這些經(jīng)濟(jì)模型通常用于債券市場(chǎng)或信用違約掉期等復(fù)雜問(wèn)題。多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家經(jīng)過(guò)預(yù)測(cè)得出結(jié)論稱，西班牙隊(duì)和德國(guó)隊(duì)是奪冠熱門。 德國(guó)德卡銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)稱，冠軍來(lái)自于17個(gè)歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的可能性高達(dá)86%。這對(duì)于關(guān)心歐元區(qū)的人們來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好消息。 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家分析了過(guò)去四屆歐洲杯的賽事結(jié)果，并將其輸入到一個(gè)復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)模型里，從而得出預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果稱，“和西班牙、荷蘭一樣，德國(guó)隊(duì)是奪冠熱門。” 在題目為“足球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的研究記錄中，荷蘭銀行的研究人員說(shuō)，他們的研究工作是以“半嚴(yán)肅的方式”進(jìn)行的。 他們補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“因?yàn)椴还茉趺凑f(shuō)，足球還是很重要的。我們現(xiàn)在當(dāng)然需要一些輕松的場(chǎng)面。歐洲，特別是歐元區(qū)，已經(jīng)被危機(jī)困擾兩年了。” 荷蘭銀行反復(fù)核對(duì)了一個(gè)國(guó)家足球隊(duì)的比賽成績(jī)和該國(guó)的信用等級(jí)，得出結(jié)論稱，在7月1日的歐洲杯決賽中，德國(guó)隊(duì)將獲得冠軍。 但對(duì)整個(gè)歐元區(qū)來(lái)說(shuō)，研究記錄稱：“從經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度看，最好的結(jié)果是法國(guó)隊(duì)奪冠”，因?yàn)榉▏?guó)被視作歐元區(qū)最不穩(wěn)定的“核心”國(guó)家之一，而奪冠將大幅提振民眾信心。 聯(lián)合信貸銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也大干了一番，把宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)輸入復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)模型，以期預(yù)測(cè)奪冠球隊(duì)。 他們根據(jù)球員的轉(zhuǎn)會(huì)身價(jià)，計(jì)算出了每支球隊(duì)的總價(jià)值，認(rèn)為最終的兩場(chǎng)半決賽將在“真正的一流球隊(duì)”之間展開(kāi)，傳統(tǒng)的對(duì)手球隊(duì)將會(huì)狹路相逢。 最終的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果為，葡萄牙隊(duì)（價(jià)值3.38億歐元）對(duì)陣西班牙隊(duì)（6.58億歐元），德國(guó)隊(duì)（4.59億歐元）對(duì)陣英格蘭隊(duì)（3.92億歐元）。 相關(guān)閱讀 白宮“故意”泄露國(guó)家機(jī)密 FBI介入調(diào)查 （中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)英語(yǔ)點(diǎn)津 Julie 編輯：陳丹妮） |
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Vocabulary: tongue-in-cheek: 半開(kāi)玩笑的，不當(dāng)真的 earth-shattering: 驚天動(dòng)地的，極其重大的 boffin: 研究員，科學(xué)工作者 light relief: 輕松場(chǎng)面，滑稽場(chǎng)面 go to town: 大干一番 pit: 使相斗，使對(duì)立，使競(jìng)爭(zhēng) |
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