www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Combining reform with growth

By Louis Kuijs (China Daily) Updated: 2014-03-11 07:32

The Government Work Report presented by Premier Li Keqiang at the annual session of the National People's Congress on March 5 confirms that the central leadership will start implementing a fairly comprehensive set of reforms this year. The report discusses plans to implement reforms this year to enable the market and private sector to play a larger role in conjunction with a recalibrated role of the government.

The approach to changes in economic policy, however, remains cautious and gradual. First, growth remains the key objective, as the report stresses that "development (that is, growth) remains the key to solving all our country's problems" and that China "must keep economic development as the central task and maintain a proper economic growth rate". Accordingly, the GDP growth target remains unchanged at 7.5 percent.

In the government's terminology, fiscal policy will remain "proactive" and monetary policy "prudent" in 2014, although these labels do not say much about the actual stance. The government's budget aims to keep the official fiscal deficit unchanged at 2.1 percent of GDP. But the total fiscal deficit, including borrowings by local governments from banks and the shadow banking system, is likely to be substantially higher, as it has been in recent years. Of course, it is hard to know how high.

The report does not contain many specifics on the planned monetary policy other than announcing that the M2 growth target has remained at 13 percent. It stresses the need to "foster a stable monetary and financial environment" and "strengthen macro-prudential management to encourage an appropriate increase of monetary credit and non-governmental financing".

What does this mean for the outlook on growth and policy this year? In the fairly benign base scenario of Royal Bank of Scotland, with sufficient "organic growth", the government can make progress with reining in the pace of increase in the credit to GDP ratio while protecting its bottom line on growth. In a less benign scenario, with less organic growth, the government is likely to be less forceful on reining in credit growth given the emphasis on economic growth. In that case, a systemic financial problem or instability remains unlikely any time soon. However, financial risks would rise further and financial market sentiment would remain bearish.

Second, the approach to rebalancing the growth pattern seems to have evolved, and investment remains key for the government. Many experts and the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) call for a rebalancing of the growth pattern away from investment and industry and toward consumption and services. But the government puts the objective somewhat differently nowadays. It calls for increasing domestic demand and boosting consumption. But it also wants to "fully leverage ... the key role of investment" and says it "will take investment as the key to maintaining stable economic growth".

Third, the government plans a pragmatic approach on how quickly it should move in different areas of reform. Even though the government has called for "breaking vested interests", the report calls for a "focus on areas where the public call for reform is strongest" and "links on which there is extensive public consensus". Thus, the reform areas that are likely to see significant progress are the ones where there is broad agreement and no strong resistance from vested interests. Indeed, looking at the reform areas, the plans are relatively concrete in the ones where there is good agreement and no strong resistance from vested interests.

This is especially the case with financial and monetary reform, where the report's language is quite concrete on the direction-toward a deposit insurance scheme, liberalizing interest rates, expanding the Chinese currency's trading band and more renminbi convertibility under the capital account-although there are no indications on timing.

Also, the government plans further progress on administrative reform and delegation of power to lower levels of governments, reducing red tape, and making the formation and operations of businesses easier.

On the other hand, the approach is more gradual and cautious in areas where reform is more difficult, such as in the case of fiscal and rural land reforms, and those related to State-owned enterprises. In the fiscal area, the plans and intentions on changing the fiscal relations between the central and local governments, as well as on tax policy, remain particularly cautious and gradual.

Having said that, the report's language is more concrete than previous top-level documents on the complicated area of improving the quality of urbanization and hukou (house registration) reform. The government has committed itself to "progressively grant urban residency to migrant workers and their families who are both willing and able to stay in cities and towns where they have had jobs or done businesses for a long time" and "steadily extend basic public services to fully cover the permanent population of cities and towns so that the rural people who live in them can contribute to the development of modern urban life and enjoy it together with the urban people".

In this vein, the government has set itself three tasks involving 100 million people-granting urban residency to migrants, rebuilding rundown urban areas and guiding further urbanization in the central and western regions.

All in all, even though the approach to changes in economic policy remains cautious and gradual, the government plans to start a fairly comprehensive set of reforms.

The author is chief China economist for Royal Bank of Scotland.

(China Daily 03/11/2014 page10)

Most Viewed Today's Top News
New type of urbanization is in the details
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲国产精品久久人人爱 | 欧美精选欧美极品 | 久草视频观看 | 精品自拍视频在线观看 | 国产美女主播一级成人毛片 | 国产大尺度福利视频在线观看 | 久久综合九九亚洲一区 | 亚洲自拍中文 | 国产a∨一区二区三区香蕉小说 | 精品国产品国语在线不卡丶 | 免费观看成年人网站 | 亚洲国产精品久久 | 毛片在线视频在线播放 | 日韩在线播放视频 | 在线观看一区 | 免费视频男女 | 精品国产高清久久久久久小说 | 美女免费毛片 | 精品成人免费一区二区在线播放 | 国产a级特黄的片子视频 | 一级毛片免费看 | 中国的毛片| 日韩加勒比 | 国产精品久久久久影院色 | 亚洲欧美午夜 | 国产欧美专区在线观看 | 欧美一级特黄高清免费 | 国内精品久久久久久久星辰影视 | 杨晨晨福利视频 | 韩国精品一区视频在线播放 | 男人的天堂官网 | 欧美成人h| 99热免费在线 | 日日操干| 国产激情一级毛片久久久 | 日韩欧美在线视频 | 国产成人久视频免费 | 欧美性精品 | 成人免费小视频 | 久久国产精品99久久小说 | 俄罗斯黄色一级片 |