www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Long-term policy reflects responsible leadership

By Dan Steinbock (China Daily) Updated: 2016-02-23 07:48

Long-term policy reflects responsible leadership

Premier Li Keqiang speaks at the 14th Meeting of Prime Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization addresses the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), saying it should focus on building six cooperation platforms, in Zhengzhou, Henan province, on Dec 15. The platforms will cover six fields: security, production capacity, interconnectivity, innovative finance, regional trade and peoples' livelihoods. [Photo/Xinhua]

Since spring 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping has stressed that China must adapt to an economic new normal. In the short-term, that means slower growth, painful restructuring and conflicting responses following fiscal accommodation.

At the 2015 Central Economic Work Conference, the policy authorities pledged to focus increasingly on supply-side reforms, which prioritized the reduction of excess capacity while maintaining stability. That is likely to mean expanded fiscal spending and further monetary easing. As an effort to stimulate economic growth, the supply-side reforms represent the other side of the new normal.

In the foreseeable future, China will emulate neither the laissez-faire doctrines of the United States, which led to the global crisis, nor Europe's social accommodation, which is no longer supported by the region's growth.

In contrast, supply-side reforms seek to facilitate China's transition to a post-industrial society.

A hard landing describes a business cycle in which an economy slows down sharply or tips into recession after a rapid growth performance due to government efforts to rein in inflation. A hard landing can also be the unintended result of a central bank's efforts to tighten monetary policy to slow down growth and contain inflation.

Since the global financial crisis, many observers have argued that China is in the midst of such a hard landing. I have argued that they are wrong.

First, a hard landing is predicated on a central bank being willing to hike up rates to slow growth. In reality, the People's Bank of China has been cutting interest rates since early 2012.

Second, a hard landing indicates rising inflation. And yet, since late 2011 when inflation peaked at more than 6 percent, inflation in China has gradually decreased to less than 2 percent.

Third, a hard landing indicates a sharp slowdown in economic growth, if not outright recession. Yet, China's growth remains between 6.5 and 7 percent, more than four times as high as the eurozone's and almosecot three times higher than the US.

Finally, a hard landing is predicated on a business cycle. However, China's growth deceleration is fueled by the government's rebalancing efforts. The shift from unsustainable growth based on investment and net exports to consumption and innovation is about structural transformation, not just business cycles.

After the global financial crisis, China, thanks to its huge stimulus package, accounted for more than 50 percent of the global GDP growth from 2009 to 2010. It was an extraordinary contribution that spared the international economy from a 21st century replica of the 20th century's Global Depression. But in the future, the mainland will not be able to "bail out" global growth in a similar way.

At that time, China's GDP was less than 10 percent and its population about 20 percent of the total world population. Today, China accounts for about 25 percent of world GDP growth, which is closer to its share in the world economy. In the coming decade, China has the potential to grow two to three times faster than major advanced economies, as long as market-oriented structural reforms prevail.

Today, the US, Europe and Japan continue to take debt, have zero-bound interests or persist in new rounds of quantitative easing. In contrast, China's government is engaged in a structural transformation, even as it is deleveraging. After two to three years, that could result in a reform dividend.

That's a purposeful long-term policy, which reflects responsible economic leadership that should inspire the advanced West.

The author is the founder of Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (US) and is visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore).

Most Viewed Today's Top News
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 99视频在线观看高清 | 亚洲一区二区三区不卡视频 | 国产成人综合网亚洲欧美在线 | 草草影院在线观看 | 波多野结衣一区二区在线 | 国产日韩欧美 | 久久国产一区二区 | 欧美成人免费观看 | 国产午夜人做人视频羞羞 | 96精品视频在线播放免费观看 | 亚洲一区二区三区四区五区 | 操你.com| 色综合亚洲七七久久桃花影院 | 德国女人一级毛片免费 | 岛国搬运工最新网地址 | 色www永久免费 | 国产一区二区三区四区在线观看 | 6一10周岁毛片免费 6一12呦女精品 | 免费国产一区二区三区 | 爱综合 | 国产视频二区在线观看 | 国产99视频精品免视看7 | 成人看片黄a在线看 | 草免费视频| 婷婷在线成人免费观看搜索 | 怡红院亚洲红怡院天堂麻豆 | 成年人免费在线观看网站 | 亚洲男同可播放videos | 欧美va免费大片 | 鲁丝片一区二区三区免费 | 亚洲综合国产 | 成人亚洲欧美 | yellow中文字幕久久网 | 亚洲精品国产一区二区在线 | 亚洲人成网站在线在线 | 国产黄色片在线观看 | 欧美片a| 国产日韩欧美视频 | 视频一区二区在线 | 国产日韩不卡免费精品视频 | 国产精品大全国产精品 |