www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

WORLD> America
Economists: 2nd half US growth likely to be anemic
(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-07-21 19:32

WASHINGTON - Call it the big fizzle. The hoped-for second-half economic rebound is looking to be lethargic, with the United States straining under high energy prices and fallout from the housing and credit debacles.

Forty-five percent of economists believe the US economy won't log any growth or will clock in at a feeble 1 percent pace in the final six months of this year, according to a survey being released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, which is known by the acronym, NABE. And, 10 percent think economic activity could actually contract during the period.

"Forecasters are approaching the second half with a lot of caution," Ken Simonson, point person on the survey and chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, said in an interview. "Most forecasters are suggesting the outlook will be sluggish, but not desperate. I'm afraid we're stuck on the ground floor of growth."

Thirty-two percent, meanwhile, think the US economic growth during the second half could be between 1 and 2 percent, which would mark a plodding performance. The more bullish are clearly in the minority camp: 11 percent think growth will come in between 2 and 3 percent. Only 1 percent expect growth to surpass 3 percent.

The US economy's growth slowed sharply in the final quarter of 2007 and remained stuck in a rut in the first quarter of this year. Tax rebates, which have energized shoppers, should help lift the country out of the doldrums somewhat in the second quarter. The government releases its estimate of the second-quarter's economic performance at the end of this month. However, as the bracing force of the rebates fade, some analysts fear the economy could hit another rough patch near the end of this year.

Earlier this year, many thought that the first half of this year would be difficult and the second half would be stronger, lifted by the US government's $168 billion stimulus, including tax rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses. With the rebates kicking in earlier than some expected, the second half could turn sluggish.

Many have "abandoned the notion of seeing a rebound," Simonson said.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who briefed Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, warned that over the rest of this year, the economy will grow "appreciably below its trend rate" mostly because of continued weakness in housing markets, high energy prices and tight credit conditions.

Normal activity would be along the lines of a 2.5 percent to 3 percent growth rate for the economy.

Not only is the country slogging through lethargic growth, but it is also confronted by rising prices that threaten to spread inflation.

In the NABE survey, 75 percent reported paying more for raw materials, such as fuel and steel. That's the highest percentage in record keeping going back to 1994. Those higher prices are squeezing profit margins and leading some firms -- 35 percent -- to boost their prices, the survey found. That's up from the 29 percent who said their companies raised prices in the previous survey in April.

Consumer prices in June rose at the second-fastest pace in a quarter century, the US government reported Wednesday. Wholesale prices also went up sharply during the month.

Meanwhile, most forecasters expect a continued slowdown in housing over the next six months, although they think it will be "mild" versus "substantial."

Grappling with fallout from housing and credit troubles and stung by high costs for energy and other raw materials, employers have cut jobs in each of the first six months of this year. Over the next six months, 51 percent said they expected to hold payrolls steady. Twenty-nine percent expected to boost them and 20 percent thought jobs would be reduced through layoffs or attrition.

Caught between slow growth and rising prices, the Fed is likely to leave interest rates alone when they meet next on Aug. 5. Boosting rates to fend off inflation would deal a setback to the economy and further hurt the housing market. The Fed can't afford to lower rates more to shore up economic activity because that would make inflation worse.

Sixty-two percent said the Fed's nearly yearlong string of rate reductions and other steps to prop up financial markets, had no effect on their business.

The survey, based on the responses of 101 NABE members, was conducted between June 19 and July 10.

主站蜘蛛池模板: 精品国产一区二区三区在线 | 成人满18在线观看网站免费 | 国产三级在线观看免费 | 欧美一区二区高清 | 亚洲精品一区二区久久这里 | www.av视频在线| 欧美真人视频一级毛片 | 天天激情站 | 国产综合在线视频 | 国产成人精品综合久久久 | 欧美日韩一区二区三区高清不卡 | 国产中文字幕在线观看 | 成人在线网 | 日本欧美一区二区三区在线 | 3至13呦女毛片 | 欧美亚洲国产成人高清在线 | pgone太大了兽王免费视频 | 日本尹人综合香蕉在线观看 | 飘花国产午夜精品不卡 | 国产精品久久福利网站 | 天天se天天cao综合网蜜芽 | 99国产成人高清在线视频 | 特毛片| 美女黄色一级毛片 | 日日摸人人拍人人澡 | 99re6这里有精品热视频在线 | 久久免费资源 | 国产一区中文字幕在线观看 | 99久久国语露脸精品对白 | 鲁丝片一区二区三区免费 | 草草视频免费在线观看 | 亚洲国内| 国产一区二区三区在线视频 | 国产精品1区2区3区在线播放 | 亚洲国产精品第一区二区 | 久久精品国产精品亚洲综合 | 国产呦系列呦交 | 欧美毛片在线 | 一二三中文乱码亚洲乱码 | 国产麻豆福利a v在线播放 | 成人国产精品999视频 |