www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

2nd recession possible in developed economies

Updated: 2011-09-15 06:19

(Agencies)

  Comments() Print Mail Large Medium  Small 分享按鈕 0

LONDON - The developed world's economies have become ensnared in a growth slowdown that threatens to turn into recession, at a time when room for manoeuvre with bold policy responses has narrowed significantly, Reuters polls showed.

Surveys of more than 250 economists in North America, across Europe and Japan portend steadily increasing chances that central bankers will need to fire any weapons they may have left to stave off disaster.

The median probability of a second recession in the United States, euro zone and Britain has climbed to roughly one in three, which is dangerously close to where such predictions have been correct in the past.

Consensus forecasts for recessions rarely get to 50 percent before history proves economies were already in one.

"The (U.S.) economy is dangerously close to stall-speed," said Aneta Markowska, economist for Societe Generale. "There is no buffer, and even a moderate shock could derail the cycle." ?

While several prominent economists have already stuck out their necks with recession calls, those who work in the financial industry appear reluctant to put minus signs in front of economic forecasts.

That said, top global central bankers on Monday said there was no sign of a worldwide recession looming, even though growth is slowing. ?

Perhaps most striking over the past several months is the change in the policy outlook as financial markets plunged into turmoil and worries about the future of the European common currency have flared from slow burn into a continental inferno.

"European sovereigns now constitute the biggest macro risk," said John Lonski, economist at Moody's Capital Markets.

Economists as a group expect no interest rate rises from either the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England or the Bank of Japan until 2013, which most would agree is too far ahead in an uncertain future to forecast with any degree of accuracy.

This is bad news for the ECB, which has already looked out of step with other central banks for raising interest rates twice this year -- albeit in tiny amounts -- while a debt crisis burned in several euro zone countries.

Indeed, a handful of economists are now on the record forecasting the ECB will cut rates before the year ends.

"We are in an environment where ... unexpected outcomes have become more probable, which has increased the probability that central banks will provide more easing," said Divyang Shah, economist at IFR Markets, a Thomson Reuters company. ?

"You have seen that debate shift at the Fed, you've seen that debate shift at the Bank of England, and we have seen that debate shift at the ECB, who at their last meeting focused more on the downside risks to growth as well as the adjustments to the inflation outlook," said Shah. ?

Grwoth stalling

As for economic growth, forecasters took a hatchet to the at-best modest expectations they had pencilled in for the remainder of this year and 2012.

But only five of around 200 respondents to the poll had a quarter of contraction anywhere in their forecast horizon for the United States, euro zone or Britain. ?

Not a single economist predicted so much as one quarter of contraction in GDP anywhere in the forecast horizon for the United States. The lowest forecast was for no growth.

That is all the more striking given the growing sense of urgency to address faltering growth, and the tens of thousands of job cuts at the same financial institutions who are forecasting recovery.

President Barack Obama has proposed another $447 billion worth of stimulus for the moribund U.S. jobs market.

Although the number of Americans living in poverty hit a record 46 million in 2010, and jobless claims are still on the rise, some untapped economic potential lies in the huge cash piles that large U.S. corporations are sitting on. ?

In Britain, the chances that the Bank of England will again turn to quantitative easing to boost a stagnating economy are on the rise at 40 percent, the poll showed.

And in Japan, which in all likelihood rebounded strongly from recession in the current quarter, the consensus shows that rebound tailing off rather rapidly as the year ends. ?

The strong yen, which hit a record high against the dollar last month on safe-haven flows, has sapped the vigour of Japan's recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck just over six months ago.??

主站蜘蛛池模板: 在线步兵区 | 免费看一级毛片欧美 | 露脸 在线 国产 眼镜 | 国产精品免费一区二区三区四区 | 91亚洲精品国产第一区 | 国产成人久久精品麻豆二区 | 成人18免费网站 | 成人看片黄a免费 | 久久国产精品1区2区3区网页 | 午夜精品一区二区三区在线观看 | 国产一级在线 | 成人免费观看永久24小时 | 久久黄色影院 | 亚洲网站视频在线观看 | 精品自拍视频 | 亚洲欧美大片 | 国产精品日韩欧美 | 久久精品国产亚洲欧美 | 无内丝袜透明在线播放 | 日日噜噜噜夜夜爽爽狠狠69 | 亚洲美女在线播放 | dvd8090cnm欧美大片 | 91亚洲自偷手机在线观看 | 久久无码av三级 | 欧美成人免费在线 | 日本欧美高清 | 香蕉亚洲精品一区二区 | 国产aⅴ精品一区二区三区久久 | 嫩草影院ncyy在线观看 | 日韩亚洲精品不卡在线 | 亚洲人成日本在线观看 | 久久久久免费精品视频 | 草草视频手机在线观看视频 | 午夜人成 | 一区二区欧美视频 | 欧美国产成人免费观看永久视频 | 三级网址在线 | 国产情侣真实露脸在线最新 | 欧美日韩一级二级三级 | 日韩在线精品 | 亚洲视频在线观看地址 |