Business council says rollback of some tariffs likely on both sides of trade talks

Exports from the United States to China slumped by 7 percent last year, as the trade dispute between the two countries began to bite, but they still outpaced export growth to the rest of the world over the last decade, underlining China's important role in sustaining US jobs, according to a report released on Wednesday by the US-China Business Council.

Total US goods exported to China in 2018 were valued at $119 billion, down $9 billion from the previous year.

Despite the drop, exports to China increased 73 percent over the past 10 years, while exports to the rest of the world grew only 57 percent, the council said in its 2019 State Export Report.

"Exports to China support more than 1.1 million jobs in the US," the report said. "States across the country have jobs that are supported thanks to US exports to China, making trade important to not only US companies and consumers, but also US workers."

Last year's slump seems to have lingered into this year. In the first three months, China's trade with the US amounted to $121.7 billion, down by 11 percent year-on-year, according to China Customs.

The business council's report said the contraction of exports is likely due to the trade conflict between the two countries, which resulted in retaliatory tariffs slapped on each other's goods, and states across the US have felt the effects.

For example, 34 states, including those in the Midwest and Plains regions that export farm produce, sold less to China last year than in 2017.

"Trade tensions and punitive actions have consequences for the national economy, as well as at the state level," said Craig Allen, president of the business council.

He said the two countries need a "substantive agreement" to address business concerns that also must "include a plan of action for the removal of all or most of the tariffs to reverse the damage we saw in 2018".

The 11th round of high-level economic and trade talks is scheduled for next week in Washington, following negotiations in Beijing earlier this week co-hosted by Vice-Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

No details of the latest talks were available, but various reports have said negotiators made headway on thorny issues in the US-China trade dispute, meaning they are drawing closer to a deal.

The business council report said a rollback of at least some of the tariffs imposed by both governments is expected, though it is not yet clear how many products will receive relief.

Allen said in a news release that if the agreement includes a major purchase of US goods, as some news reports suggest, US export growth could resume this year.

US services exports to China provided a counterpoint to goods, rising 4.1 percent to $56 billion, according to the release.

Over the last decade, US services exports to China grew significantly faster than to the rest of the world－258 percent versus 49 percent, it said.

Exports of US goods to China come from a wide range of industries, including transportation equipment, semiconductors and oil and gas. They sustain logistics jobs at US ports and elsewhere.

US services exports to China included travel and education, industrial processes and management services, among other things, the report said.

In goods and services, China is the third-largest trading partner of the US. China was the top goods export market for four US states last year, and among the top five markets for 44 states.

In services exports alone, China was the top market for 15 states in 2017, and a top-five market for 49 states, the report said.