www射-国产免费一级-欧美福利-亚洲成人福利-成人一区在线观看-亚州成人

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

Beyond the GDP growth target

By Wu Jiangang (chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2014-07-18 10:57

Beyond the GDP growth target

With China recording 7.5 percent GDP growth rate in the second quarter, slightly higher than 7.4 percent it posted in the first quarter, the country has sent a powerful rebuttal to those who worry about rapid economic downturn.

In fact, there have been other positive signs. Purchasing Managers' Index in June was 51.0, a rise of 0.2 compared with that in May and straight increase for four consecutive months. From the beginning of May, "Keqiang index", which measures railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks, began to rise and continued its upward trend in June.

But these positive signs cannot dispel worries of future economic downward pressure. Economic recovery in the second quarter was mainly due to government's "

But these policies are unsustainable. Fiscal policy is mainly about government investment, which can increase debt that is already high. Monetary policy will put pressure on future inflation. These plans mainly have short-term effects, but the government's space for such policies has become increasingly smaller.

Some of the government's "mini-stimuluses", such as cutting tax by replacing sales tax with value added tax, attracting private capital to participate in government projects, reducing various government controls, are also helpful for transformation of economic growth mode. But these policies, which are just minor adjustments of the current institutional system, are difficult to play a visible effect in the short run.

The growth rate of 7.4 percent for the first half year consists of contribution of 0.3 percent from primary industry, 3.5 percent from secondary industry and 3.6 percent from tertiary industry. Compared with the first half of last year, contribution is 0.1 percent higher from primary industry, 0.2 percent lower from secondary industry and 0.1 percent lower from tertiary industry.

So contributions both from secondary and tertiary industry dropped and the decline in secondary industry is particularly noteworthy, since the drop occurred under the background of government's intensive micro-stimulations.

With government investment still playing a key role, the targeted full-year growth rate of 7.5 percent is still attainable. But why does China need to keep such a high economic growth rate.

The answer lies in employment. For 2014, China government needs to stabilize the current employment levels and keep the unemployment rate lower than 4.6 percent. At the same time the government needs to provide 10 million new jobs, which is nearly the entire population of Greek.

In the first half of this year, China actually provided more than 700 million new jobs. It seems that the employment pressure is relatively small for the second half year. But since many new jobs are provided by government projects, the worry still persists that there are not enough new government projects and these projects may result in a large number of unemployed people when they end.

While the government may need the traditional way of stimulation from government investments and micro scale and the micro-stimulations can delay outbreak of possible crises and save time for the transformation of the economic growth model, the final solution is dependent on the recovery of the private economy.

The 3rd Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee has proposed to allow the market to play a decisive role. Obviously, besides micro-stimulations, the most urgent step is to redefine the boundaries of government and the market, i.e. to transfer the investment-oriented government into a service-oriented one.

The author is a lecturer at the Management School of the Shanghai University and a research fellow at the China Europe International Business School Lujiazui International Finance Research Center.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产欧美日韩在线观看 | 欧美日本俄罗斯一级毛片 | 岛国大片在线播放高清 | swag国产精品一区二区 | 精品久久久久久久久久久久久久久 | 精品欧美一区二区三区精品久久 | 国产乱码一区二区三区四 | 91精品免费国产高清在线 | 亚洲免费美女视频 | 国产精品一区在线免费观看 | 手机看片神马午夜 | 日韩一区二区精品久久高清 | 222aaa天堂 | 香蕉网站狼人久久五月亭亭 | 久久久久国产成人精品亚洲午夜 | 美女流白浆网站 | 欧美日韩生活片 | 国产蜜汁tv福利在线 | 日韩美女免费线视频 | 国产午夜精品久久久久小说 | 一级做a爰片久久毛片欧美 一级做a爰片久久毛片人呢 | 成人中文字幕在线观看 | 中文字幕国产一区 | 国产亚洲精品久久久久久午夜 | 欧美午夜三级我不卡在线观看 | 一级一片在线播放在线观看 | 久久精品国产亚洲麻豆 | 亚洲精品不卡在线 | 久久精品国产亚洲欧美 | a级精品九九九大片免费看 a级毛片免费观看网站 | 亚洲精品国产手机 | 美女视频黄a视频美女大全 美女视频黄a视频免费全程 | 国产17部性孕妇孕交在线 | 宅男66lu国产乱在线观看 | 欧美视频三级 | 国产成人精品视频一区二区不卡 | 亚州三级视频 | 国产女王丨vk | 国产精品国产三级国产专播 | 亚洲网站视频 | 99九九国产精品免费视频 |